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Core claim from cross Leavers is that only determination of Remainers to frustrate the results of referendum has prevented us actually leaving. A better explanation however points to the failure of Leavers to unite on a clear plan for Brexit and their subsequent divisions 1/.
Now Johnson having veered towards no deal to become leader is veering even more sharply towards May's deal to stay PM. If he succeeds this will be one of the most egregious case of 'grand-old-duke-of-yorkism'. 2/
Suppose he succeeds how do opposition parties respond? They too must realise that there is no better deal to be negotiated and that EU patience is running out on continual extensions. 3/
Assume hard remainer parties will continue to oppose (Libs, LD, Green, PC and SNP) while most of those Tory MPs who recently lost whip will support (and get whip back?). Some ERG will rebel. DUP still uncertain. 4/
Government will still need some Lab support. May be more Lab rebels in past but the spotlight will be on Lab leadership who will face a starker choice than before as defeating deal could leave them accused of pushing country to the very no deal they say they want to avoid. 5/
They can promise to look at political declaration again when in office but that will not satisfy remainers in party. My guess they will seek to amend with confirmatory referendum, which would make some sense. My guess is also that this would just fail. 6/
After that Lab could potentially split three ways - with leadership abstaining (that is what I thought would happen last Dec but they have kept Parliamentary discipline quite well since then).7/
LDs would support this - their pledge on revocation is for gen elec and only makes sense if extension. If deal they would need to reposition sharply. The main focus for them (and Lab) must be long term relationship with EU - stunningly neglected amidst rows of this year. /End.
