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Following explains why I believe Johnson/Cummings have made strategic error. It may not be fatal because their opponents perfectly capable of making comparable errors of their own. 1/
Cummings is known to have a fascination with John Boyd's OODA (observation-orientation-decision-action) loop derived from Boyd's experience as a fighter pilot (so tactical rather than strategic) 2/
As Boyd applied this idea it came to mean avoiding crude, attritional trial of strength by keeping enemy disoriented using surprise, stealth, manoeuvre etc. 3/
In this case Johnson wants to avoid trial of strength in HoC because knows there is a majority against 'no deal' hence measures to disorient opposition and deny them time to agree strategy 4/
Boyd's approach would succeed if could produce victory without the hard fighting. This was the idea behind 'prorogue' strategy when first mooted some weeks ago which was to suspend parliament until after 31 October. So deed done when Parliament reconvened. 5/
Johnson has not gone for broke. In addition to constitutional issues, he may actually need HoC if he can do deal with EU. This means that he cannot avoid trial of strength. Next week is available plus two weeks after 14 Oct. 6/
The key action will probably be next week. It may be that Johnson will be happy with VONC leading to election but that assumes he can keep control of political agenda.7/
What he has done today is help his opponents orient themselves to next week's action by clarifying the stakes, narrowing the options, but leaving just enough time. But as state at start. This does not mean they will take advantage. End/
