,
8 tweets,
2 min read
Read on Twitter
Let us assume that a) Johnson now realises why his erstwhile colleagues were so opposed to no deal and doesn't relish the idea of fighting an election just after one, and b) therefore genuinely now wants a deal with EU, but 1/
c) also finds that the only deal available is going to be pretty similar to the one he has campaigned against for past year. Current negotiations are intended to provide a functional equivalent to the backstop, even if called something different. 2/
Unclear whether something at all sell-able can be negotiated, but assuming something can be is Johnson capable of getting it through Parliament given that it will be seen and derided as extraordinary U-turn? 3/
Couple of points on timing. First assumption that deal will be done at EU Council on 17/18 October is nonsense. May be last minute drama but essence will have to be known well before, and certainly by time Parl returns on 14 Oct (if Courts don't force it to return earlier). 4/
The issue of whether WA can now be passed will have to be addressed straight away because why would EU bless new deal if still can't get through Parliament. 5/
As before depends on how many Lab MPs prepared to support WA to compensate for rejecting ERG MPs (and poss DUP). Potential extension therefore important not because of reduced pressure on EU but because reduces risk to Lab of opposing actual deal. 6/
Big test of strategy for Johnson will be Tory Party Conference at end of month which now can't be just election rally. Would he be able to prepare his supporters for what some would see as ultimate betrayal? 7/
Caught between rock and a hard place each of his own construction Johnson might be relieved to be required by law to ask for an extension in hope that a general election will give him working majority. /End
