,
18 tweets,
5 min read
Read on Twitter
People struggle to understand why Brexit has proved so hard, so I've developed a "kit" that I carry around in my wallet that helps me explain. 1/ 
I start by describing a typical "deal" that at first glance seems reasonable. Why would the EU refuse this unless they were deliberately trying to punish us? Why would Remainer MPs block it unless they were corrupt? 2/
Then I flesh it would with some examples. Which is where we hit problems, because this deal is impossible. Not because of the EU or Remainers, but because of basic logic. 3/
Why? Ask yourself the question: "If the Kent guys make jerky with "steroided: beef, which is illegal under EU law, do the Dutch have the right to refuse to allow it into their country? The "Frictionless" card gives emphatic no, while the "EU27 Laws" card gives emphatic yes. 4/
The rules of basic observable reality ensure that we can have only two out of three of those options. So how about this one? That's Johnson's "Have cake and eat it option". I'm not even going to bother to explain why this is out of order. 5/
So how about this one? This is the Soft Brexit advocated by Nick Boles and "ish, sort of, sometimes" by Labour. But it does genuinely beg the question, why leave? It's unacceptable to most Brexiteers, and besides Theresa May rules it out early on in her speech of Autumn 2016. 6/
Which inevitably brings us to Hard Brexit, which basically screws our guys in Kent. Can they survive? Maybe. But it's going to be a lot harder for them, and for a bunch of other people. 7/
Now maybe you're saying that this is the EU being pernickety, but it's not. Australia does the same. Check out this vegan smarties packet with dual EU/Australian packaging. Check out that the English ingredients list had to be done twice, because Australia has different laws. 8/
Note that German company had to find local Australian company to act as their distributor, which I believe is so that if it turns out to be illegal, there are Australian based directors who can be prosecuted under Australian law.
This is what having your own laws looks like. 9/
This is what having your own laws looks like. 9/
Okay, so UK companies, and the UK economy might take a hit. So what? We'll still be better off due to the money we're no longer giving to the EU, right? Erm, no. See that tiny sliver of less than 1%, that's the money we give, and a third of that comes back. /10
The point is that when Brexit damages the economy, that pie will shrink by far more than the size of that £8.5 billion sliver. To give some contrast, in 2008-2009, the gap between UK tax revenues and UK government expenditure grew by more than £80 billion. 11/
About half of that was reduced tax income (people and companies paying less income tax, corporation tax, and VAT). The other half was increased benefits (to people who'd lost their jobs, had wages cut and so on). And that was just a few banks going under! 12/
And of course, I've just mentioned the economic cost on the England-France sea border. Because then there's Ireland, and that has the exact same unsolvable problems, but now there are logistical, social, and political costs to add. 13/
So there's no point you screaming for politicians to get on with "it" when the "it" you voted for is a deal that simply isn't possible. It isn't the EU27 that have blocked your deal, nor corrupt Remainers. It's basic observable reality. 14/
If you're still angry at this point, you're like a drunk man in a pub car part at closing time, screaming at no-one in particular and throwing punches at empty air. 15/
Oh, and my example is purely about the Single Market. I haven't even yet mentioned the Customs Union, which is a whole bunch of other problems! 16/Ends
I don't even know what a sound cloud is, but if you liked this, all four of my books are currently free on Amazon Kindle (or £6.99 in paperback):
Oh and if you're asking how useful this kit has actually proved in reality, I've never actually used it. No-one's ever asked me to explain why Brexit is hard, because no-one wants to know. And that's basically the problem.
Still. Oh well. On to oblivion. :)
Still. Oh well. On to oblivion. :)
