Offer equals
- GB and Northern Ireland out of Customs Union but with minimal checks on NI:IE border.
- GB out, but basically NI in Single market, if NI wishes, so no NI:IE regulatory border checks, but more GB:NI Irish Sea regulatory checks than now.
- after a transition period
- GB and Northern Ireland out of Customs Union but with minimal checks on NI:IE border.
- GB out, but basically NI in Single market, if NI wishes, so no NI:IE regulatory border checks, but more GB:NI Irish Sea regulatory checks than now.
- after a transition period
Key analytical point - UK clearly wants significantly lower ongoing alignment with EU than under May.
“That proposed future relationship is to the goal of the current UK Govt” - therefore the backstop, says the PM not needed and is now a “bridge to nowhere”.
“That proposed future relationship is to the goal of the current UK Govt” - therefore the backstop, says the PM not needed and is now a “bridge to nowhere”.
... All Ireland regulatory zone for “all goods” is a big move though. De facto Single Market membership for Northern Ireland... but will shift that border to Irish Sea... DUP seem ok with this because...
... all Ireland regulatory zone must get consent of NI Executive and Assembly at start and then every four years...
... and the backstop references to the “single customs territory” go - NI does not remain in the EU Customs Territory. Means UK can offer UK-wide not just GB in trade negotiations with other countries...
Business reaction from NI groups range from “unworkable”. “Tariffs north to south mean farms and agrifood will be decimated” and “frankly the proposals are worse than No Deal for NI businesses”... and people pointing out that its customs and VAT checks across Irish border
On the record here from the NI Retailers - key point Joint Report of Dec 2017 is effectively “ripped up” and predicated on “intrusive surveillance” for border communities.
But Commission response “positive advances” with “problematic points” to PM-Juncker phone call contain the magic words “need further work in the coming days” - so there’s something to discuss
Dublin not positive 👇🏾
3 Lab MPs say signed up to deal having held out for MORE guarantees on keeping regulatory standards with EU, but this designed around “no need for extensive level playing field commitments” on worker/economic/ environmental standards “envisaged in previous [backstop] protocol” ..
The Political Declaration is surely ripped up alongside this Johnson announcement - there were three significant references to level playing field commitments in that document, now not sought/ “no need”. Can’t just be snipped out...
Is Govt even seeking a PD?
Is Govt even seeking a PD?
Immediate consequences - eg where is the basis for the car industry/ advance manufacturing sector in UK to continue to believe there will be “no need for checks on rules of origin”, as May had negotiated.
Now the hint in the letter today is perhaps that the Government would bring this back as Withdrawal Agreement alone and then allow a General Election to determine the shape of a future deal.
But this would be legally binding treaty predicated on low regulatory alignment with EU
But this would be legally binding treaty predicated on low regulatory alignment with EU
In theory European Parliament will have to vote for this deal within the next 4 weeks for it to be ratified - “not positive” says chair of Brexit Steering Group -
