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, 5 tweets, 1 min read
1. PM spoke to Merkel at 8am this morning - No 10 source says she said there could only be a deal if Northern Ireland stays in Customs Union, if not, then deal is 'overwhelmingly unlikely'
2. No 10 says PM stressed to Merkel UK believes they had put forward a reasonable new deal, but with no desire to engage on EU side + this demand on NI staying in Customs Union a deal is 'essentially impossible'
3. No 10 source says 'talks in Brussels are close to breaking down, despite the fact the UK has moved a long way' - today's 8am call described as a 'clarifying moment'
4. Feels like any chance of a deal this month just died
5. Will be v interesting to see what Berlin says about the call on their side
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Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
1. What a strange day - Queen’s Speech normally a huge day, this year is basically a warm up for a Tory manifesto because very unlikely any of the measures will pass
2. Govt announces Budget will be Nov 6th - normally also a big deal, expect it might not be then if there is no deal, or indeed if we are already into an election campaign which is also possible
3. Meanwhile it’s all over shadowed by whether there can be a deal with EU in time -
Read 6 tweets
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Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
1. Downing Street staying v tightlipped for now after the talks - hear the meeting was a constructive 2.5 hours, and at the end Varadkar and Johnson went for a walk round the grounds one on one
2. From the tone of the statement seems there's been a bit of progress, but may well only have been stepping a few inches towards each other, when they started miles apart - but the process is rolling on, rather than coming crashing to a halt - Varadkar should be speaking soon
3. If today’s talks mean negotiators go into the ‘tunnel’ that would be a big deal .... Altho it is still extremely hard to see how this results in an actual agreement this month (if ever)
Read 3 tweets
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Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
1. Varadkar and Johnson meeting underway - lots of possible outcomes but it could be an enormous moment in this whole process
2. If Varadkar and Johnson can't find any common cause today then surely even the most optimistic people (not that many left in all of this) in this process have to accept a deal next week, and this month is pretty much out of the question
3. If the talks crash today it's also possible that the PM might decide not to go to the summit next week at all
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Did Merkel really say Northern Ireland would have to stay in the EU Customs Union to get a deal? I suspect it was more nuanced but this suits the UK government narrative
This looks like the Number 10 line that has been building for a while. EU conditions make a deal impossible. I'm sceptical, not least as saying Northern Ireland has to be I the EU CU forever would be a hardening of EU lined.

The actual EU line is probably that there is no current realistic solution to avoiding a Northern Ireland border without Customs Union, but we can work on one. Requiring trust that isn't there hence guarantees. UK not prepared to negotiate on this basis.
Read 3 tweets
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Chris Mason
@ChrisMasonBBC
The PM spoke to Angela Merkel at 8am where a No10 source says she made clear a deal is ‘overwhelmingly unlikely’, and suggested to Boris Johnson that a deal would never be possible unless Northern Ireland stayed in a customs union, following EU rules (via @bbclaurak)
@bbclaurak The source described the call as ‘challenging’, and said that if that was the EU’s position a deal is ‘essentially impossible not just now, but ever.’ The source described the call as a ‘clarifying moment’ and made clear...
@bbclaurak ... that the EU is ‘willing to torpedo the Good Friday agreement’ and was essentially demanding a veto.
Read 4 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Offer equals
- GB and Northern Ireland out of Customs Union but with minimal checks on NI:IE border.
- GB out, but basically NI in Single market, if NI wishes, so no NI:IE regulatory border checks, but more GB:NI Irish Sea regulatory checks than now.
- after a transition period
Key analytical point - UK clearly wants significantly lower ongoing alignment with EU than under May.
“That proposed future relationship is to the goal of the current UK Govt” - therefore the backstop, says the PM not needed and is now a “bridge to nowhere”.
... All Ireland regulatory zone for “all goods” is a big move though. De facto Single Market membership for Northern Ireland... but will shift that border to Irish Sea... DUP seem ok with this because...
Read 14 tweets
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Murphy de Pfeffel Murphy
@LiamTheBrewer
Thread.
#ireland #brexi

Having spent an hour tring to explain what's happening here to a #Brexit person in #England I'm now convinced that we are in serious trouble /1

#ireland #gfa
I don't believe that most people who voted leave have any malign intent towards us. I'm not a fan of the EU myself. Still less do I think its an England/Ireland thing, I was born in England, I was schooled there & my partner is English /2
But there is a yawning gap of comprehension about the troubles & what it took to stop it. /3
Read 25 tweets
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
1/ Another customs thread. This time on #customs formalities and #Backstop . Backstop envisages a #customsunion with simplifications. It mentions that a movement certificate, A.UK, will be required. No mention of customs declarations.
2/ Movement certificate demonstrates that goods are eligible for trade under a customs union. Is certified by e.g. a Chamber of Commerce. Declarations do more than that. They are entered into the national customs system and enable customs authorities to collect customs data.
3/ Much more info on a declaration than on a movement cert. Some of the most important fields include commodity code, value of goods, country of origin and customs procedure. Would imagine the UK would still like to collect this data for various reasons even under backstop.
Read 9 tweets
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
On #customs formalities and documentation under various #Brexit scenarios. Procedures and documentation required for customs clearance can be confusing. Particularly, the difference between a single market and a customs union seems to be unclear. /1
Under different Brexit scenarios there will be different customs formalities and supporting documentation traders will need to complete/ provide for customs clearance (from an upcoming blogpost): /2
This is a simplified view - additional formalities are required depending on the type of goods (e.g. agricultural, excise) and other supporting documentation may be needed (e.g. licenses, certificates, value declaration, insurance docs, tariff quota docs etc). /3
Read 5 tweets

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