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A longer thread on the UK's proposals for NI based on my experience of the Brexit negotiations in past 3 years. Suffice to say at best a mixed bag, would require big concessions from EU & IRE which are unlikely. Here's why...1/
Alignment on agrifood & industrial goods positive step, but undermined by need for Stormont approval in advance & renewal every 4 years. If DUP denies this at any stage, physical infrastructure at the border becomes the default. EU has said it won't countenance that 2/
Claims to protect principle of consent. While valid democratic concerns about current backstop, this proposal goes too far the other way. No consent regarding customs or VAT proposals. Also unbalanced as not a choice but a default of no alignment unless both NIE & NIA agree 3/
While some will say dumping of level playing field is also a negative, I do not think it is unfair since UK wide customs territory has also been dropped. In my view the two went hand in hand, so not as much of a problem. 4/
Customs proposals require significant exemptions or derogation from existing UCC. While certain provisions exist the proposals sees them being used much more widely for all types of businesses. EU has previously rejected such proposals 5/
Would require renegotiation of Common Transit Convention, an international treaty. Currently requires physical infrastructure to check transit docs. Previous Govt I was part of tried to negotiate this on our accession to CTC, but were unable to due to EU opposition 6/
The exemption for small traders is sensible and means the proposals are more technically sound. However, the EU has previously rejected such a proposal on grounds it undermines integrity of single market & customs union. 7/
While the proposal as drafted could in theory avoid physical infrastructure at the border, possibly even elsewhere though that is unlikely, it would still mean a big change to the way businesses operate in IRE & NI, creating significant burdens in terms of admin & checks. 8/
The proposal is very vague on VAT, but my reading is that it suggests a wide ranging exemption from current VAT rules especially on enforcement. This will raise concerns from EU & IRE but possibly also NI business who may see this as suiting smugglers 9/
Mention of a "broad landing zone" is welcome but even if the EU were to see this as the ballpark for a deal, it is hard to see how legal text can be agreed in the space of two weeks. I have sat in these negotiations. It is a painstaking process. 10/
For all these reasons, I cannot see EU & IRE agreeing to these proposals, may not even see as basis for negotiations. I suspect they would rather gamble on an extension & election. Given I want to see UK leave with a deal, I hope I am wrong & wish Govt the best of luck. 11/ END
