Thread by @TracyNovick

As one who sympathizes with the "tell us all of it right now" types, let's talk through why the Governor thought this #MAEdu spreadsheet drop was going to be a bombshell and why we shouldn't let it be.

First, as has repeatedly said by many, including both @RepAlicePeisch and @SenJasonLewis (and me), local REQUIRED contributions are, yes, going to go up.

But check your budgets: the number of districts in the state that aren't ALREADY well in excess of foundation can be counted on about one hand.

(And yes, includes the one I'm sitting in)

But if all you see is "AUGH! That number is much higher than (the required contribution) of last year!"

Thus, one assumes (because, no, I haven't been party to any of this, either) the "let's talk this through" rollout @MA_Senate was instead doing.

Second, can you run seven year projections?
Sure.
But

Projections are based on assumptions, and they're only as strong as those (which, note, DESE is and has been up front about!).

Flat enrollment works for statewide projections, but for very few districts, for example.

And you all know (because we've talked about this!) that we DO NOT KNOW what the poverty calculation is going to look like!

Plus, these are the Ch. 70 calculations; many of you know better than I that out-of-district transportation being added to circuit breaker is a real dollar difference for your districts (and it isn't here, of course).

I have a well-honed dislike of attempts to panic people with numbers that are big and it is assumed people won't understand.

SO: know your own budget numbers, know your local context, and use those for whatever numbers come down the pike (so to speak)

Deliberations start tomorrow at 11. See you then.
#FBRC #MAEdu #mapoli

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