Thread by @jonworth

Let's dust down the crystal ball and try to work out what the government is trying to do with #Brexit now

This is not a prediction of what will happen (each step could be blocked), but more an effort to work out what Number 10's strategy is

Number 10 has by now realised that Johnson is in a hole

Breaking the law is not a good look

And trying to strong-arm their way towards a Brexit does not work

So focus instead is on the victim narrative. How an intransigent EU and Remainer-packed Commons is thwarting Johnson

What evidence do we have to back this up?

First, this from Steve Baker MP

He might sometimes be wrong, but he believes what he says:

https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1180096095587885056

Second, the evidence from today's Maugham / Cherry / Vince case hearing is that the UK Prime Minister does intend to respect the Benn Act - but then there's briefing to Laura Kuenssberg that other plans are afoot:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1180109081165598720

Third, the Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó pitched up in London this week, and said kind things about Johnson: dailynewshungary.com/foreign-minist…

Fourth, prorogation will go ahead from the end of Tuesday's business in the Commons next week, and there will be a new Queen's Speech on 14 Oct:

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1179427222547046406

The debate on the Queen's Speech overlaps with the 17-18 European Council

All of this then points to a massive and messy showdown on 17, 18 and 21 October

Because of the prorogation, Johnson is not going to have the backing of the Commons for a Deal at the European Council

Indeed the whole NI Border proposal is designed to fail - the UK knows what they have proposed cannot be backed by the EU

Instead Johnson is going to go along to the Council on 17 Oct, rant that his demands on Brexit are reasonable, but the intransigent EU stopped him, and perhaps even stage a walk out

"I'm going to send the extension letter", he will tell the EU, "only because the Remainer Commons told me to do so"

"From now and throughout the extension period - if you want to give us that extension - we're going to be as problematic as we can be"

"We won't pay into the EU budget. We will veto everything we can veto. We are going to make life as hard for all of you as we can"

And look, here's Szijjártó from Hungary who backs me up to say the EU is behaving badly!

Do you EU really want to give that country an extension?

Basically Johnson is going to try to engineer a veto

But then what if the EU grants an extension after all?

Then there's the Commons to blame instead.

Because the Commons might vote down Johnson's Queen's Speech (vote will be 18 or 21 Oct), and that's considered a confidence question - so Johnson would face calls to resign

And even were Johnson not to resign, having secured an Article 50 extension, it would be harder for Swinson and Corbyn to resist calls for a General Election

In short:
- The Deal is designed to fail
- Then Prorogation wastes time
- Johnson blames EU for failure and tries to antagonise EU to veto extension
- If that fails, use Queen's Speech as confidence device to get a General Election

Wdyt @syrpis @jonlis1 @BrigidLaffan @StevePeers @JolyonMaugham @sturdyAlex @Usherwood @NickBoles @davidallengreen?

/ends