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OK folks

Take a very deep breath

The new #BrexitDiagram V26, redesigned from scratch, is here

This one is, well, complicated. But the conclusions are fascinating
The root cause of the major changes is NOT Johnson's speech, and is NOT the bad reaction in Brussels to the Government's Brexit "plans"

The change is the news that the Commons will be prorogued next week

That limits the time to do *anything* before the 17 Oct European Council
That means the Benn Act is going to have to work as-is. And any effort to oust Johnson is then going to have to be last minute

Also with less than a month to go, I now have labelled weeks on the diagram (top to bottom), and UK and EU side (left and right)
The overall impact, in comparison to V25:
Revoke by 31 Oct - 15% ⬆️⬆️
No Deal 31 Oct - 4% ⬆️
GE in 2019 - 43% ⬇️⬇️
GE in 2020 - 15% ⬇️
#PeoplesVote - 21% ⬆️
Brexit with Deal - 2% ⬆️
As ever feedback is most welcome - especially on the order of the boxes, and on the assessment of the probabilities

And the high res images etc. are as always on my blog:…

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