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Jon Worth
@jonworth
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
OK folks

Take a very deep breath

The new #BrexitDiagram V26, redesigned from scratch, is here

This one is, well, complicated. But the conclusions are fascinating
The root cause of the major changes is NOT Johnson's speech, and is NOT the bad reaction in Brussels to the Government's Brexit "plans"

The change is the news that the Commons will be prorogued next week

That limits the time to do *anything* before the 17 Oct European Council
That means the Benn Act is going to have to work as-is. And any effort to oust Johnson is then going to have to be last minute

Also with less than a month to go, I now have labelled weeks on the diagram (top to bottom), and UK and EU side (left and right)
The overall impact, in comparison to V25:
Revoke by 31 Oct - 15% ⬆️⬆️
No Deal 31 Oct - 4% ⬆️
GE in 2019 - 43% ⬇️⬇️
GE in 2020 - 15% ⬇️
#PeoplesVote - 21% ⬆️
Brexit with Deal - 2% ⬆️
As ever feedback is most welcome - especially on the order of the boxes, and on the assessment of the probabilities

And the high res images etc. are as always on my blog:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

/ends
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Let's dust down the crystal ball and try to work out what the government is trying to do with #Brexit now

This is not a prediction of what will happen (each step could be blocked), but more an effort to work out what Number 10's strategy is
Number 10 has by now realised that Johnson is in a hole

Breaking the law is not a good look

And trying to strong-arm their way towards a Brexit does not work

So focus instead is on the victim narrative. How an intransigent EU and Remainer-packed Commons is thwarting Johnson
What evidence do we have to back this up?

First, this from Steve Baker MP

He might sometimes be wrong, but he believes what he says:
Read 16 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
I am struggling with the timing of the next steps for Brexit, UK side

This quick thread from Lewis is a good start:
I *think* it goes like this:
- PM statement Thu 3 Oct, no VONC or SO24 expected
- No sitting Fri 4 Oct
- House sits normally Mon 7 Oct
- House sits Tue 8 Oct, then prorogued (is this right? When on 8 Oct is the prorogation?)
bbc.com/news/uk-politi…
- No sittings 9, 10, 11
- Queen's Speech Mon 14 Oct
- Debate on Queen's Speech 15, 16, 17 Oct
- Vote on Queen's Speech 18 Oct
- Sat 19 Oct is the deadline in the Benn Act

17, 18 Oct is the European Council
Read 6 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
So @hugodixon had an interesting idea in this column:
independent.co.uk/voices/boris-j…

Could the Commons amend the Benn Act mandating someone other than Johnson to write the Article 50 Extension letter?

I added it to #BrexitDiagram to see its impact - now V25
Interim probabilities now:
Johnson goes to 17 Oct Summit: 40%
Johnson goes *but no power to send letter*: 17%
Someone else goes as PM: 42%
Johnson is heading for Court: 2%
This option - to keep Johnson in power but to control what he can do more closely - has the impact of keeping him on as PM longer, and lowering the chances a VONC is needed short term.

This option merits more debate and discussion.
Read 5 tweets

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Voter enthusiasm/engagement is very high in the new Pew poll, with 61% of voters saying they're more enthusiastic than usual to vote in the midterms. This question is usually a pretty good predictor of overall national turnout. pewrsr.ch/2ONPD0q
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