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Jon Worth
@jonworth
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
There are 3 important #Brexit developments possible in next 48h

1️⃣Outer House of Court of Session decision on @JolyonMaugham nobile officium case

While this is not likely to be final (will go to Supreme Court), it's important to see if Johnson can find a way around the Benn Act
2️⃣Prorogation order should be published

That this hasn't yet been published is odd - as the Prorogation is due to start end of Commons business tomorrow. Is there some trick they're going to pull? Or delay it?
3️⃣Order paper for post-Queen's Speech should be out, will give date of vote on Queen's Speech

Timetable post-Queen's Speech overlaps with the European Council - and if Johnson were to lose vote that's normally a resigning matter. Vote 18 or 21 October?
Theoretically there could be a further one...

4️⃣ Corbyn tables a Vote of No Confidence - the last chance to do this before Commons is prorogued would be today... but I am not holding my breath that is going to happen!
I suspect however our Twitter feeds and column inches will be filled with tedium about whether Johnson is making progress or not in talks, or if Barclay's speech in NL is annoying or not.

Neither of these things is as important today as the 3 or 4 points I outline above!

/ends
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
This How Number 10 sees the negotiations piece in The Spectator is interesting

Key: "If this deal dies in the next few days [...] we will have to fight the election on the basis of ‘no more delays, get Brexit done immediately’."

blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/how-nu…
The Number 10 source does not realise how contradictory they are when seeking to undermine Varadkar.

He talks too much to Remain people UK side, the source says, but then acknowledges the Tories are going to have to fight an election seeking to appeal to Brexit Party voters.
Look at the numbers there and if the Tories go hard line *only*, getting to a majority is hard. So Varadkar's line makes sense. And better a chance of a reasonable Deal than accepting a v inadequate one now.

Anyway, do read the piece in full. Number 10 are cornered and know it.
Read 3 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Let's dust down the crystal ball and try to work out what the government is trying to do with #Brexit now

This is not a prediction of what will happen (each step could be blocked), but more an effort to work out what Number 10's strategy is
Number 10 has by now realised that Johnson is in a hole

Breaking the law is not a good look

And trying to strong-arm their way towards a Brexit does not work

So focus instead is on the victim narrative. How an intransigent EU and Remainer-packed Commons is thwarting Johnson
What evidence do we have to back this up?

First, this from Steve Baker MP

He might sometimes be wrong, but he believes what he says:
Read 16 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
OK folks

Take a very deep breath

The new #BrexitDiagram V26, redesigned from scratch, is here

This one is, well, complicated. But the conclusions are fascinating
The root cause of the major changes is NOT Johnson's speech, and is NOT the bad reaction in Brussels to the Government's Brexit "plans"

The change is the news that the Commons will be prorogued next week

That limits the time to do *anything* before the 17 Oct European Council
That means the Benn Act is going to have to work as-is. And any effort to oust Johnson is then going to have to be last minute

Also with less than a month to go, I now have labelled weeks on the diagram (top to bottom), and UK and EU side (left and right)
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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Michael Gray
@GrayInGlasgow
I’m in Court 1 at Court of Session, as petitioners @JolyonMaugham @joannaccherry move case seeking to enforce the Benn Act - requiring a request to extend Brexit Exit Day if no Deal is agreed. Seek use of court’s ‘Nobile Officium’ to sign letter if Boris Johnson refuses.
Petitioner’s Counsel currently in detailed discussion of full timetable. Like Prorogation case, time is tight (deadline day is 19 October) & case may need to wind through any Outer House, Inner House, & then UK Supreme Court processes.
Mr O’Neill QC, for petitioners, says it’s ridiculous to suggest there’s no serious time pressure. Points to 12 days between Benn Act deadline & crashing out, within which letter needs sent & then EU Governments would likely need to meet & agree. Court rises to consider.
Read 33 tweets
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Anna Ellis
@annaellis_net
Day 2 of the Supreme Court hearing on prorogation of Parliament. Yesterday's threads can be found here: THREAD 1/
This morning, the QC for the Government's case will be submitting his skeleton argument (a summary which is supported by evidence, case law, affidavits etc in folders known as bundles). This afternoon, it's the turn of the QC representing the 78 Parliamentarians in Cherry case 2/
Yesterday, we heard from the teams that *lost* the cases that are being appealed to the Supreme Court. That's because in appeals, those doing the appeal go first. Pannick spoke for the Miller case, which lost in High Court; Keen argued for Govt which lost Scottish case. /3
Read 46 tweets
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Anna Ellis
@annaellis_net
At 10:30 today, the Supreme Court will sit *for 3 days*, with 11 Justices, on the matter of the prorogation appeals. Last time they did that was with Gina Miller's previous #Brexit case. The judiciary are wielding the big guns on this one. THREAD. 1/
Day 1: Couple of hours each for the plaintiffs in the Miller & Maugham/Cherry cases to put their arguments.
Day 2: Couple of hours each for the defendants (HMG & Advocate General, Scotland) to counter.
Day 3: "Oral interventions", 30 mins each. No Shami.
No room for waffle. 2/
For the die-hard politicos with time to spare, this is being livestreamed on supremecourt.uk/live/court-01.…. You can also read 164 pages of legal arguments from the Miller case, Maugham/Cherry case & the Government response. I'll be following the stream & posting updates. 3/
Read 40 tweets
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Anna Ellis
@annaellis_net
Gotta love the times we live in. THREAD:

The case brought by Jo Maugham, Joanna Cherry et al has produced a surprise result at Scotland's Inner House court. Judges have deemed the PM's advice was unlawful. This is being celebrated by Remainers. 1/
Firstly, the summary being circulated *is not the actual judgement*. That gets issued on Friday 13 September (unlucky for who, we can only hazard a guess). What we have here is a press release, issued, no doubt, by Jo Maugham & his merry Parliamentarians. 2/
Next, this is obviously being appealed. The Supreme Court scheduled emergency hearing on Gina Miller's case, the NI case & this one together on 17 September. As the arguments of the plaintiffs are essentially the same, this is a sensible use of overstretched court resources. 3/
Read 14 tweets
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⚢🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸🏳️‍⚧️
@SakuraNoSeirei
Good morning and welcome to another #Brexit thread

I'll be attempting to cover the events that are happening both in the Commons and in the Lords today so this is going to be a long one

1/n
So first things first, hello to all my new followers and here's a quick breakdown of what's happening today, and a quick precis of how business in each House is carried out and why really arcane things seem to happen that bear little-to-no relationship to reality

2/n
What's expected for today?

In the Lords the Opposition and Crossbench peers have laid a motion that will allow them the time to scrutinise the Bill that's about to be debated in the Commons. They want to debate this Bill on Friday at the latest. More on that later

3/n
Read 130 tweets
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Juha Keskinen
@MacFinn44
"Libertarian gets in hospital with brain concussion following interrogation at Federal Security Service."
Even Russian Federal Security Service doesn't like Libertarians...
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Yeah, that'll fix the problem...
en.crimerussia.com/gover/rogozin-…
Stephen Schwarzman's (Blackstone) N113CS 4/12/19 Waterbury-Teterboro-Palm Beach
He's been flying a lot to PB in the past few months
"TRUMP, KUSHNER, RUSSIA AND THE BLACKSTONE MYSTERY. Something More for Robert Mueller to Investigate?"
whowhatwhy.org/2018/03/28/tru…
Read 771 tweets

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