Thread by @markzbarabak

When  @KamalaHarris launched her presidential bid she counted California as a major asset. But rather than serving as a foundation, the senator’s home state is exposing the cracks in her campaign. Herewith, a thread seeking to explain why: latimes.com/politics/story…

@KamalaHarris Being elected California governor or senator automatically puts that lawmaker on the short list of potential presidential/vice presidential contenders. And why not? It’s the richest, most populous and, indisputably gorgeous state in the country…

See what I mean? The thing is, as Kamala Harris has discovered, there’s no such thing as a political home-state advantage. Polls show her drawing the support of fewer than 1 in 10 California voters. She’s far behind Warren, Biden and Sanders + effectively tied with @PeteButtigieg

@PeteButtigieg His home town of South Bend, Ind., population roughly 100,000, wouldn’t even make the list of California’s 50 most-populous cities. So why is Harris struggling that?

@PeteButtigieg Some of it is specific to the candidate herself. All the problems that have plagued her campaign nationally, uneven debate performances, a shifting stance on issues the lack of a clear and compelling message hurt her in California as well.

@PeteButtigieg But much of it has to do with the nature of California, a hard lesson learned by Jerry Brown and Pete Wilson, among others. First, though, a musical interlude:

@PeteButtigieg Still there? OK. So a few things about California. It’s big (laid on a map it stretches from Maine to South Carolina). It’s got a lot of people: 40 million, which is more than Canada, and about 20 million voters. It’s super hard to get known statewide and super expensive.

@PeteButtigieg We’re talking about $25 million just to get to the starting gate in statewide race. California’s not Montana, where folks know their politicians on a first-name basis. As @GovBullock says, it’s like a small town with a very long main street. California is it’s own country

@PeteButtigieg @GovBullock In California, a voter can live their entire life here and never stand in the same zip code as their governor or U.S. senators. Unless they follow the news, they only know their politicians through the TV ads they see every other year or four or six. (Depending on the office)

@PeteButtigieg @GovBullock That’s why someone like Kamala Harris can be elected three times to statewide office and still be largely unknown to about a quarter of those surveyed more than two years into her term. (And 8 as state atty general.)

@PeteButtigieg @GovBullock Grabbing the public’s attention is tough. Californians tend to be more attuned to Washington than Sacramento, especially on issues that don’t involve the governor, and many rely more on national media than local news coverage.

@PeteButtigieg @GovBullock Though a Californian would be the last to admit it, and I already can feel the @’s coming, many are guided by perceptions that are formed in Iowa and New Hampshire, which draw inordinate time and candidate attention.

@PeteButtigieg @GovBullock Small consolation, perhaps, but Harris is not the first California candidate struggling at home as she attempts the leap from the West Coast to the White House. Former Gov. Jerry Brown lost the state in two of his three presidential runs.

@PeteButtigieg @GovBullock After poor showings in 1984 and 1995, respectively, the late Democratic Sen. Alan Cranston and former Republican Gov. Wilson abandoned their presidential campaigns before the contest even reached California.

@PeteButtigieg @GovBullock History shows the way to win California is by first winning someplace else, starting in Iowa and/or New Hampshire. As strategist Don Sipple, a veteran of Wilson’s failed campaign put it:

@PeteButtigieg @GovBullock “Unless a candidate proves their bona fides on the national stage, California will abandon you. There’s no loyalty.”

@PeteButtigieg @GovBullock Thus we see Harris changing her strategy to go all-in in Iowa. That will also mean a new style of campaigning, since California politicians running statewide focus
more on pulling in cash than posing for selfies.

@PeteButtigieg @GovBullock She says she plans a more intimate approach in Iowa. Will it work? We shall see. Meantime, read more here: latimes.com/politics/story…

@PeteButtigieg @GovBullock That is all.