Thread by @panyiszabolcs

1/ Some context for today's municipal elections in Hungary for those who are interested. Thread.

In autumn 2006, Viktor Orban’s party, Fidesz won big at the municipal elections yet wasn’t able to carry Budapest. They only carried it 4yrs later.

Today, all eyes are on Budapest.

2/ Fidesz has won EVERY nationwide election since 2006, all national, municipal elections & public referendums.

This unprecedented winning streak was partly due to the opposition’s fragmentation.

Today, for the 1st time, we see a joint opposition (‘Összefogás’) facing Fidesz.

3/ Fidesz’s nationwide hegemony is mostly based on their ability of controlling the countryside through having Fidesz mayors & Fidesz majority city councils almost everywhere.

Town budgets are important resources to “support” local party infrastructures, campaigns, media etc.

4/ In previous years, businessmen in Orban’s inner circles gradually took over all of Hungary’s local media (county&city newspapers, TVs, radios).

Local media serves as main source of information especially for elderly & less tech-savvy votes - they are Fidesz’s core electorate.

5/ Orban’s govt has also implemented the so-called Public Work Scheme. Instead of receiving gov’t aids unconditionally, unemployed people (many of them Roma) in the countryside are required to work & essentially became employees of local mayors who make sure they vote for Fidesz.

6/ Hence Fidesz is in a strong position for an overall win today. However, expect reports of local voter fraud, organized transportation or intimidation of voters, buying votes for money, gifts, food.

Already in 2014, OSCE described Hungary’s national election free but not fair.

7/ Races to watch:

Budapest: joint opposition candidate Gergely Karacsony & Fidesz-backed incumbent Istvan Tarlos are neck-to-neck in recent polls.

The opposition is also expected to take back lots of districts but will likely fall short of majority in the Budapest Council.

8/ In the last municipal elections in 2014, Fidesz won 20 out of 23 towns with county’s rights (more important cities).

The opposition is expected to be more competitive this time due to their ability to agree on a single candidate almost everywhere. Still, this won’t be enough.

9/ What makes this election harder to predict, however, is the unexpected sex tape scandal of Zsolt Borkai, mayor of Gyor. Journalists have also uncovered blatant corruption linked to his circles.

Fidesz’s campaign was on defense for almost two weeks
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

10/ Mayor of Budapest Istvan Tarlos even called for Borkai’s resignation multiple times, a sign that he feels even his re-election is in serious danger.

Fidesz’s defeat in Budapest would be huge, however, there is no other nationwide election scheduled after this one until 2022.

11/ Fidesz’s election strategy was to conduct a campaign as silent as possible in hope of apathy & a low voter turnout.

Fidesz are like Republicans in the U.S.: they have fewer supporters than their rivals in total, but they are much more effective in bringing them to the polls.

12/ Based on turnout at 1pm, final turnout (7pm) could be record-breaking (~50%). In scandal-hit Gyor, turnout is 40% higher than in 2014.

It’s still hard to make predictions. Higher turnout could be a result of both Fidesz’s mobilization machine or anti-Fidesz protest votes.

13/ Shout-out to my friends and colleagues in Poland covering their national #PolishElections - happening the same day as Hungary’s municipal election.

Stakes are much higher in Warsaw, but - sorry! - the race seems to be a little closer in Budapest.

We’ll see in some hours.

Wow: early results in Hungary’s municipal elections are very promising for the opposition.

Opposition candidate Gergely Karacsony is leading Fidesz-backed mayor Istvan Tarlos 49% to 45%. Key races in Budapest districts & “battleground” cities also show close results/oppo. lead.

Race for Budapest: opposition candidate Gergely Karacsony is extending his lead as votes are still being counted.

Istvan Tarlos, Fidesz-backed mayor of Budapest has been in power since 2010.

@indexhu is live blogging the municipal elections in English:
index.hu/english/2019/1…

It’s official: Hungary’s united opposition won key races at today’s municipal election. Results are a huge blow to PM Orban & his party, Fidesz. The opposition will take control of Budapest, the new mayor is Gergely Karacsony. Important cities are also taken by oppo. candidates.

(Almost) final results of Hungary’s municipal elections:

Mayor of Budapest: Gergely Karacsony, Green-Socialist (2014: Istvan Tarlos, Fidesz)

Budapest districts (23): 9 Fidesz, 14 opposition (2014: 18 & 5)

Cities with county rights (23): 13 Fidesz, 10 opposition (2014: 20 &3)