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, 10 tweets, 6 min read
So I made this graph and thought it was amazing

THREAD

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-re…
Basically, the amount of electricity generated from fossil fuels in the UK keeps falling…

…and that's primarily down to rising output from renewables (but demand falling too, v important)

So renewables just topped fossil fuels for the first time

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-re…
Rather than getting too hung up on this particular moment, however, the really significant thing is the trend.

It's no longer a question of when renewables will form the backbone of UK electricity supplies.

It's when – & how far/fast they go afterwards.

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-re…
This is another milestone of the amazing transformation going on in the UK electricity sector.

Unfortunately, that progress hasn't been matched in other parts of the economy.

So UK is currently unlikely to meet its upcoming legally-binding climate goals

carbonbrief.org/ccc-uk-has-jus…
The biggest reason for the recent increase in UK renewable output has been a bunch of new offshore windfarms opening around our coasts…

interactive.carbonbrief.org//how-uk-transf…
…and there are now even more offshore windfarms in the works, due to generate electricity at below market prices, without subsidy

– and potentially even cheaper than running existing gas plants!

carbonbrief.org/analysis-recor…
Just to return to our new analysis, Aug / Sep were the first consecutive months where UK renewables outpaced fossil generation.

The first ever such month was in September 2018. And there have only ever been 4 of these months.

We can expect many more.

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-re…
The UK's windfarms, solar panels, hydro and biomass plants generated more electricity than power stations burning coal, gas or oil on **more than one-third of all days in the year so far**

That only happened on 15 days in 2015 – and never before then!

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-re…
I'll end on some caveats:

* yes, we included biomass as "renewable"
* no, it isn't "zero-carbon" (see article)
* yes, nuclear is (nearly) "zero-carbon"
* yes, nuclear is ~20% of the mix

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-re…
Finally, yes, my estimate could be wrong. Full details on what I did at the end of the article.

But the trend is there for all to see – and that's not changing.

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-re…
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More from @DrSimEvans see all

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Simon Evans
@DrSimEvans
THREAD

Battery electric vehicles have just recorded an absolutely stunning increase in their share of the UK market, which has tripled in two months to 3.4%, after 3+ yrs below 1%

HT @colinmckerrache for flagging and @SMMT for data
@colinmckerrache @SMMT Since 2016, annualised EV sales have more than doubled – expect that number to climb rapidly.

Meanwhile diesels have halved and *overall car sales* are down 12%
@colinmckerrache @SMMT UK car sales used to be 50/50 diesel petrol…

Now it's 3/5 petrol, 1/4 diesel and 1/10 other stuff – and changing rapidly (two months ago it was just 1/16 "other")
Read 6 tweets
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Simon Evans
@DrSimEvans
THREAD on how the UK energy mix is being transformed:

Amazingly, UK primary energy use is now at its lowest for more than half a century.

And fossil fuels supplied less than four-fifths of the total for the first time.

@Josh_Gabbatiss

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-pr…

1/6
FOUR-FIFTHS IS STILL FOSSIL FUELS!

…I hear some of you saying.

True. But that's primary energy, including all the heat that gets wasted when we burn coal, oil and gas.

Check out the huge flow of waste energy (centre-bottom) in this animation:

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-pr…

2/6
Much of that wasted heat is still disappearing out of combustion-engine cars, vans & planes.

Transport is now the largest sector for UK energy use by far – plus demand has been rising, unlike elsewhere in the economy.

It's also largest for CO2…

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-pr…

3/6
Read 6 tweets
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Simon Evans
@DrSimEvans
This is actually bonkers:

Heathrow says it will only take up "1.2% of the UK 2050 carbon target", even if builds a third runway…

…but that figure *excludes* CO2 from international flights!

(and is based on now-obsolete 80% by 2050 climate goal)

aec.heathrowconsultation.com/topics/carbon/
Here is the rationale for Heathrow's claim that it can expand the airport dramatically without significantly altering emissions:

1) exclude international aviation emissions
2) assume said emissions are offset
3) that's it

aec.heathrowconsultation.com/wp-content/upl…
Heathrow's assumption that international aviation emissions will be "carbon neutral" rests on the "CORSIA" scheme being set up under the UN aviation org ICAO.

Not everyone is so confident…

It'll only apply to the little pink CO2 triangle in this chart:

carbonbrief.org/corsia-un-plan…
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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💧simon holmes à court
@simonahac
🤓 UK electricity market's decade of change:

• 2008: Gas 46%, Coal 31%, Nuclear 13%, Import 3%, Waste 2%, Wind 1.9%, Oil 1.6%, Hydro 1%, Biomass 0.3%, Solar 0%

• 2018: Gas 38%, Nuclear 17.4%, Wind 16.8%, Biomass 7%, Import 6%, Coal 5%, Waste 4%, Solar 3.8%, Hydro 2%, Oil 0.5%
👆 data from the *incredible* data visualisation site by @CarbonBrief, which shows all the interim years too, with a clear explanation for how the UK achieved it.

interactive.carbonbrief.org/how-uk-transfo…
the UK's coal phase-out has been phenomenal!

this @guardian graphic shows coal's changing role.

number of hours without coal in:
• 2016: 233
• 2017: 624
• 2018: 1856
• 2019: 3513

theguardian.com/environment/ng…
Read 6 tweets
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JPR007
@jpr007
Controversial subjects can easily get misunderstood if you do not unwrap the packaging carefully.

In this comparison of CO2 emissions for different types of vehicles, the authors have done us the courtesy of summarising the facts in one clear picture.
Vehicles fuelled by Gasoline, Diesel or Natural Gas clearly have high CO2 emissions outputs that continue throughout their lifetimes, inevitably accumulating to very high levels.
If Electric Vehicles are charged with electricity generated by similar fossil fuels including any kind of coal, inevitably those electrical power plants also have high CO2 emissions that continue throughout their lifetimes, inevitably accumulating to very high levels.
Read 19 tweets
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Carbon Brief
@CarbonBrief
++Breaking++
Great Britain has just gone a whole week without using coal to generate electricity | @drsimevans @tomoprater bit.ly/304amDj
@DrSimEvans @tomoprater In 2019 to date, Great Britain has had 1,139 hours without coal-fired electricity.

That's the equivalent of 47 days – or one third of all hours in the year so far.
@DrSimEvans @tomoprater The amount of electricity generated from coal is down 90% in five years.

Coal now supplies less than 5% of the electricity generated in the UK.

It was 40% as recently as 2012.

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-el…
Read 5 tweets
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Peter Stott
@StottPeter
++ THREAD ++
During #ClimateChangeTheFacts I’ll provide some further information as background to statements I make in the BBC’s documentary on climate change bbc.co.uk/programmes/p07…
The 20 warmest years on record have occurred in the past 22 years. WMO Statement on global climate is available here public.wmo.int/en/media/press…
The warming trend cannot be explained by natural factors but is caused by human activities. @CarbonBrief explains how
carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-s…
Read 8 tweets
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Carbon Brief
@CarbonBrief
++THREAD++

At 9pm - for the first time in 12yrs - BBC One will broadcast a 60-min documentary about climate change presented by Sir David Attenborough.

It covers the science, impacts and potential solutions of climate change, all of which Carbon Brief has covered in depth...
Last October, Carbon Brief exclusively reported the news that the film had been commissioned by the BBC...

carbonbrief.org/exclusive-bbc-…
Earlier in the year, we tracked down the 2004 lecture that Attenborough personally attended which finally convinced him that he needed to speak out about climate change...

carbonbrief.org/exclusive-bbc-…
Read 24 tweets
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Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath
UK CO2 emissions have fallen by 38% since 1990, faster than any other major developed country. I explore the details of why in my new in-depth analysis at @CarbonBrief carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-t…
A few key takeaways:

1) UK CO2 emissions are 38% lower than they were in 1990.
Emissions would have been twice as large today if underlying factors had not changed. Electricity-sector emissions would have been nearly four times higher.
2) The largest driver has been a cleaner electricity mix based on gas and renewables instead of coal. This was responsible for 36% of the emissions reduction in 2017.
Read 7 tweets

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