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Simon Evans
@DrSimEvans
, 6 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
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Battery electric vehicles have just recorded an absolutely stunning increase in their share of the UK market, which has tripled in two months to 3.4%, after 3+ yrs below 1%

HT @colinmckerrache for flagging and @SMMT for data
@colinmckerrache @SMMT Since 2016, annualised EV sales have more than doubled – expect that number to climb rapidly.

Meanwhile diesels have halved and *overall car sales* are down 12%
@colinmckerrache @SMMT UK car sales used to be 50/50 diesel petrol…

Now it's 3/5 petrol, 1/4 diesel and 1/10 other stuff – and changing rapidly (two months ago it was just 1/16 "other")
@colinmckerrache @SMMT Sure, annualised EV sales are still small relative to conventional vehicles.

But change can happen fast.
@colinmckerrache @SMMT Will this big uptick in pure EV sales continue or is it down to the backlog in Tesla 3 orders, per tweet below?

We'll have to wait and see…
@colinmckerrache @SMMT Grist to the Tesla 3 bump mill, but there's clearly probably more to it than that alone
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Simon Evans
@DrSimEvans
THREAD on how the UK energy mix is being transformed:

Amazingly, UK primary energy use is now at its lowest for more than half a century.

And fossil fuels supplied less than four-fifths of the total for the first time.

@Josh_Gabbatiss

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-pr…

1/6
FOUR-FIFTHS IS STILL FOSSIL FUELS!

…I hear some of you saying.

True. But that's primary energy, including all the heat that gets wasted when we burn coal, oil and gas.

Check out the huge flow of waste energy (centre-bottom) in this animation:

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-pr…

2/6
Much of that wasted heat is still disappearing out of combustion-engine cars, vans & planes.

Transport is now the largest sector for UK energy use by far – plus demand has been rising, unlike elsewhere in the economy.

It's also largest for CO2…

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-pr…

3/6
Read 6 tweets
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Simon Evans
@DrSimEvans
This is actually bonkers:

Heathrow says it will only take up "1.2% of the UK 2050 carbon target", even if builds a third runway…

…but that figure *excludes* CO2 from international flights!

(and is based on now-obsolete 80% by 2050 climate goal)

aec.heathrowconsultation.com/topics/carbon/
Here is the rationale for Heathrow's claim that it can expand the airport dramatically without significantly altering emissions:

1) exclude international aviation emissions
2) assume said emissions are offset
3) that's it

aec.heathrowconsultation.com/wp-content/upl…
Heathrow's assumption that international aviation emissions will be "carbon neutral" rests on the "CORSIA" scheme being set up under the UN aviation org ICAO.

Not everyone is so confident…

It'll only apply to the little pink CO2 triangle in this chart:

carbonbrief.org/corsia-un-plan…
Read 5 tweets
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Simon Evans
@DrSimEvans
Big news on today's FT frontpage:

The govt has effectively weakened UK climate goals by using "flexibilities" under the Climate Change Act.

This goes against the "unequivocal advice" of official adviser @theCCCuk

THREAD on what you need to know

ft.com/content/cd76a6…
Govt plans to roll over 88MtCO2e from UK’s 2nd carbon budget (2013-17), which was overachieved – mostly due to recession.

CCC in Feb: “[This] would not be consistent with the Paris Agreement” & would allow emissions to rise when they should be falling.

theccc.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
This graph shows why the govt might want to make use of these “flexibilities”: The UK is set to miss its targets in the 2020s by a country mile.

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-the-u…
Read 8 tweets

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