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Simon Evans
@DrSimEvans
, 6 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
THREAD on how the UK energy mix is being transformed:

Amazingly, UK primary energy use is now at its lowest for more than half a century.

And fossil fuels supplied less than four-fifths of the total for the first time.

@Josh_Gabbatiss

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-pr…

1/6
FOUR-FIFTHS IS STILL FOSSIL FUELS!

…I hear some of you saying.

True. But that's primary energy, including all the heat that gets wasted when we burn coal, oil and gas.

Check out the huge flow of waste energy (centre-bottom) in this animation:

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-pr…

2/6
Much of that wasted heat is still disappearing out of combustion-engine cars, vans & planes.

Transport is now the largest sector for UK energy use by far – plus demand has been rising, unlike elsewhere in the economy.

It's also largest for CO2…

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-pr…

3/6
The fastest transformation has been in the power sector ("only" is too strong, but it's def the main one).

Renewables now generate 1/3 of the mix & low-carbon sources 53% overall.

But don't forget gas is still 40% – despite falling 12% in a decade.

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-pr…

4/6
With slowing growth elsewhere, offshore wind is set to become the single-largest source of renewable electricity in the UK – possibly as early as this yr.

Offshore wind now already generates more than coal – it's set to reach 1/3 of the mix by 2030.

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-pr…

5/6
Meanwhile, the UK increased the amount of fossil fuels it extracted last year, to the highest level in 6yrs…

Oil output was up 9% on tax breaks, higher prices & lower costs. Gas and coal output fell.

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-pr…

6/6
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Simon Evans
@DrSimEvans
This is actually bonkers:

Heathrow says it will only take up "1.2% of the UK 2050 carbon target", even if builds a third runway…

…but that figure *excludes* CO2 from international flights!

(and is based on now-obsolete 80% by 2050 climate goal)

aec.heathrowconsultation.com/topics/carbon/
Here is the rationale for Heathrow's claim that it can expand the airport dramatically without significantly altering emissions:

1) exclude international aviation emissions
2) assume said emissions are offset
3) that's it

aec.heathrowconsultation.com/wp-content/upl…
Heathrow's assumption that international aviation emissions will be "carbon neutral" rests on the "CORSIA" scheme being set up under the UN aviation org ICAO.

Not everyone is so confident…

It'll only apply to the little pink CO2 triangle in this chart:

carbonbrief.org/corsia-un-plan…
Read 5 tweets
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Simon Evans
@DrSimEvans
Big news on today's FT frontpage:

The govt has effectively weakened UK climate goals by using "flexibilities" under the Climate Change Act.

This goes against the "unequivocal advice" of official adviser @theCCCuk

THREAD on what you need to know

ft.com/content/cd76a6…
Govt plans to roll over 88MtCO2e from UK’s 2nd carbon budget (2013-17), which was overachieved – mostly due to recession.

CCC in Feb: “[This] would not be consistent with the Paris Agreement” & would allow emissions to rise when they should be falling.

theccc.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
This graph shows why the govt might want to make use of these “flexibilities”: The UK is set to miss its targets in the 2020s by a country mile.

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-the-u…
Read 8 tweets
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Simon Evans
@DrSimEvans
The world's fossil fuel CO2 emissions reached a record high in 2018, according to the @IEA

That's really terrible news for meeting global climate goals:

CO2 must peak and rapidly decline, to have any chance of avoiding dangerous warming.

THREAD

1/
iea.org/geco/
The IEA findings confirm preliminary estimates published by @gcarbonproject in December, which also found fossil fuel CO2 reaching a record high.

(Overall CO2 grew slightly slower than from fossil fuels, GCP said, due to falling land use emissions).

2/
carbonbrief.org/analysis-fossi…
The main problem was that global energy demand rose at its fastest pace for a decade (coloured bar on the right of the chart).

3/
iea.org/k3k0/
Read 11 tweets

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