Thread by @DrSimEvans

This is actually bonkers:

Heathrow says it will only take up "1.2% of the UK 2050 carbon target", even if builds a third runway…

…but that figure *excludes* CO2 from international flights!

(and is based on now-obsolete 80% by 2050 climate goal)

aec.heathrowconsultation.com/topics/carbon/

Here is the rationale for Heathrow's claim that it can expand the airport dramatically without significantly altering emissions:

1) exclude international aviation emissions
2) assume said emissions are offset
3) that's it

aec.heathrowconsultation.com/wp-content/upl…

Heathrow's assumption that international aviation emissions will be "carbon neutral" rests on the "CORSIA" scheme being set up under the UN aviation org ICAO.

Not everyone is so confident…

It'll only apply to the little pink CO2 triangle in this chart:

carbonbrief.org/corsia-un-plan…

For the record, here are Heathrow's own numbers showing how its expansion plans will increase emissions from the airport by 38% or 184MtCO2 over 2022-2050.

And here's your reminder that the UK is now aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050:

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-th…

One more thing: @theCCCuk has consistently said international aviation *should count towards UK carbon targets* (rather than being excluded per Heathrow numbers).

+Last week, No 10 said it "intends" for the UK's net-zero 2050 target to include aviation.

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-th…