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, 4 tweets, 2 min read
And then what...?
A reminder of why new Brexit legal text by Thursday seems unlikely...
Apparently this... (it would by any standards be complete lunacy to leave the EU with no-deal if you had agreed to a deal but run out of time to implement in Parliament. Bouncing Parliament into passing with no scrutiny not much better)
Like the time-limit on the Article 50 process perhaps?

If Johnson insists on trying to leave October 31 with no-deal he loses control of what happens next. Or does he retain control but break his promise?
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
First view of the text - there is awful lot buried in a list of EU regulations that Northern Ireland will have to follow under the deal. Second, most of the detail on future GB-NI-EU relationship is put into the next stage
Northern Ireland in effect part of the EU Customs territory through this provision - and while the UK can negotiate trade agreements covering Northern Ireland, this will be a complication. Also not clear to me yet if Northern Ireland input eligible for EU trade agreements
Now to try to sum up for @britishchambers trade conference...
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
On Brexit, I may have mentioned this before, but I await legal text (and an actual agreement) to make a proper judgement. It seems that the backstop may have been time limited only in the sense a majority in Northern Ireland would have to vote to end it (unlikely)
The detail of the customs arrangements, how N-Ireland to EU trade works, any accompanying UK-EU FTA, further conditions like level playing field, ultimate arbiter of arrangements, and length of transition period are all areas to watch when we see details.
Once we have the details will also be interesting to see whether there's a revived no-deal / clean break campaign. Because this deal sounds messy, as was always likely to be the case. Or whether a this deal but only with referendum feeling takes root.
Read 6 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
The point in negotiations after a big push fails to lead to the agreement in the hoped for timescale and you start to think that every hour without a deal reduces the chance of it happening...
Brave call. This might even be the best case. I suspect European Council will not be quite as positive as endorsing a deal, and that if there was an indicative vote on Saturday on a Brexit deal Government would lose - narrowly perhaps.
This is a very low bar for a Brexit deal. Let's wait to see if there's a deal what the text will be. Still seems a bit too much fluff and not enough clarity on what the difficult elements will be.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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KidTempo⭐
@KidTempo
Welcome back to the popular series of "Misinterpreting survey results" (though this time I think without an attempt to deceive).

Again, a cautionary tale of how misreading survey results can lead to very misleading conclusions...

Previous thread:
Survation has just published the results of a survey showing preferences of whether people wish to a) Remain in the EU, b) Leave with a Deal, or c) Crash out of the EU with no deal.
In addition to which choice voters would prefer, the survey also asked which would be the second preferred outcome i.e. the second preference - which is a good question to ask BUT its results must be treated with care.
Read 26 tweets
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Dr Phillip Lee MP
@DrPhillipLeeMP
What a day for #Brexit! All in all, we’re in a more powerful place now to do what’s right for the country.
‘No deal’ is dead: the @EUCourtPress Advocate General‘s opinion is that the UK can unilaterally revoke article 50 under certain circumstances. So we don’t have to leave the EU without a deal unless we’re irrational enough to decide that’s what we want
Parliament will rightly now be able to consider the Government’s legal advice on the ‘Withdrawal Act’ before it has to vote whether or not to accept the Govt’s #Brexit deal next Tuesday
Read 5 tweets
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David Symons
@AvoidDeadEnds
From Liz Webster /Atricle 50 Challenge today:

New #brexit legal challenge launched #UKEUchallenge 😊 which builds on achievements of #A50challenge.

1. The Supreme Court ruled in Miller ministers alone can’t make major constitutional changes.
From Liz Webster /Article 50 Challenge today

2. Our sovereign. Parliament has to make decisions by passing Acts which change the law.

3. @A50Challenge started proceedings in Nov 17 as many FOI requests to identify the decision to leave EU returned different answers.
From Liz Webster /Atricle 50 Challenge today:

4. HMG in defence said a decision wasn’t needed.

5. On 12/6/18 court permission hearing ruled the PM made the decision to leave
Read 9 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. The UK can get most of what it wants by agreeing to the EEA. It creates a stable framework which can be introduced in stages as each country specific protocol takes effect, creating space for continual negotiations - allowing us an independent trade policy almost immediately.
2. The first priority is to deal with the administrative act of leaving the EU. Subsequent issues can be refine and negotiated precisely because the EEA is an adaptive framework. The issues can be ironed out over time. It;s better than a perma-transition vassal state.
3. The EEA would provide a great deal of legal certainty for business, ensuring that the regulatory environment for trade remains intact - allowing them to remain in the UK and resume their investment plans.
Read 22 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. A strange disease stalks the land. When a person is confronted by well documented consequences of leaving the EU without a deal they simply grunt "Project fear!". This is odd because we are not talking about #Brexit economic projections...
2. It all comes down to this little thing you might have heard of called Article 50. The pertinent part being "The Treaties shall cease to apply".
3. You see, at the moment we have a deal. We have EU membership. We are part of the treaties. And if we leave and we do not secure a withdrawal agreement and subsequent arrangements for trade then we do not have a deal. The Treaties shall cease to apply.
Read 21 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. As you can see the hard #Brexit turnips have their panties in a bunch this week. It would appear they are seeking to leverage the EU's backstop position into a whole UK solution. How many times do they need to be told that this is not going to happen? (Thread!)
2. The NI situation is somewhat unique and any settlement will be an exemption from all the norms of trade and if the EU isn't careful it could find itself open to legal challenges. Wouldn't be surprised if they need to negotiate WTO waivers to complete implementation.
3. What the EU is not going to do though is allow us to pick and choose from the single market. They couldn't have been any clearer than that. they won't compromise their system integrity even for those much vaunted German car makers.
Read 21 tweets

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