We know from today's debate in House of Commons that Lee Rowley - who voted against May's Deal 3 times - will now back whatever Johnson brings back (if, of course, there is anything!)
theguardian.com/politics/live/…
Where does that leave us on chances of any Deal passing the Commons?
theguardian.com/politics/live/…
Where does that leave us on chances of any Deal passing the Commons?
First the overall numbers
The current composition of the Commons is here:
parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-…
Once you remove Sinn Fein, the Speaker, 3 Deputy Speakers you get:
Con 287
Lab 243
Ind 35
SNP 35
Lib Dem 19
DUP 10
Change 5
Plaid 4
Green 1
Total 639
The current composition of the Commons is here:
parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-…
Once you remove Sinn Fein, the Speaker, 3 Deputy Speakers you get:
Con 287
Lab 243
Ind 35
SNP 35
Lib Dem 19
DUP 10
Change 5
Plaid 4
Green 1
Total 639
The questions for a majority are:
- how many Tories (mostly ERG-side) still vote AGAINST
- how many Labour (Kinnock/Flint crew) vote FOR
- what do those who lost Tory whip do?
- does DUP vote FOR or AGAINST?
- how many Tories (mostly ERG-side) still vote AGAINST
- how many Labour (Kinnock/Flint crew) vote FOR
- what do those who lost Tory whip do?
- does DUP vote FOR or AGAINST?
SCENARIO 1
OPTIMISTIC for Johnson:
- every Tory FOR
- DUP FOR
- the 19 Labour MPs who signed the letter to Juncker plus Hoey and Mann all FOR
- independents except Grieve, Greening, Bebb, Lewis, O’Mara, Williamson, Woodcock, Hill FOR
FOR 345
AGAINST 294
OPTIMISTIC for Johnson:
- every Tory FOR
- DUP FOR
- the 19 Labour MPs who signed the letter to Juncker plus Hoey and Mann all FOR
- independents except Grieve, Greening, Bebb, Lewis, O’Mara, Williamson, Woodcock, Hill FOR
FOR 345
AGAINST 294
SCENARIO 2
As Scenario 1, but this time
- DUP vote AGAINST
- Hermon (independent) votes AGAINST
FOR 334
AGAINST 305
As Scenario 1, but this time
- DUP vote AGAINST
- Hermon (independent) votes AGAINST
FOR 334
AGAINST 305
SCENARIO 3
As Scenario 2, but 15 ERG Tories switch to the side of the DUP
FOR 319
AGAINST 320
As Scenario 2, but 15 ERG Tories switch to the side of the DUP
FOR 319
AGAINST 320
SCENARIO 4
As Scenario 2 (all ERG back Deal), but then squeezing the Labour pro-Deal Group instead
Reduce that group to Hoey, Mann and 5 others, and assume *every* Tory votes for
FOR 320
AGAINST 319
As Scenario 2 (all ERG back Deal), but then squeezing the Labour pro-Deal Group instead
Reduce that group to Hoey, Mann and 5 others, and assume *every* Tory votes for
FOR 320
AGAINST 319
SCENARIO 5
As Scenario 4, but then assume that 6 of the Tories that lost the whip *do not vote*
FOR 315
AGAINST 318
As Scenario 4, but then assume that 6 of the Tories that lost the whip *do not vote*
FOR 315
AGAINST 318
So - to conclude - to get a Deal through, Johnson needs:
- ALL the Tories (inc. ALL the ERG)
- The vast majority of the Tories that lost the whip
- And about 10 Labour MPs
(the latter could be replaced by the DUP)
This is - to put it lightly - a major ask
- ALL the Tories (inc. ALL the ERG)
- The vast majority of the Tories that lost the whip
- And about 10 Labour MPs
(the latter could be replaced by the DUP)
This is - to put it lightly - a major ask
The working for this thread are in a ODS file here:
jonworth.eu/downloads/majo…
Numbers also based on MV3:
hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2019-0…
Comments and critique v welcome!
/ends
jonworth.eu/downloads/majo…
Numbers also based on MV3:
hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2019-0…
Comments and critique v welcome!
/ends
