theguardian.com/politics/live/…
Where does that leave us on chances of any Deal passing the Commons?
The current composition of the Commons is here:
parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-…
Once you remove Sinn Fein, the Speaker, 3 Deputy Speakers you get:
Con 287
Lab 243
Ind 35
SNP 35
Lib Dem 19
DUP 10
Change 5
Plaid 4
Green 1
Total 639
- how many Tories (mostly ERG-side) still vote AGAINST
- how many Labour (Kinnock/Flint crew) vote FOR
- what do those who lost Tory whip do?
- does DUP vote FOR or AGAINST?
OPTIMISTIC for Johnson:
- every Tory FOR
- DUP FOR
- the 19 Labour MPs who signed the letter to Juncker plus Hoey and Mann all FOR
- independents except Grieve, Greening, Bebb, Lewis, O’Mara, Williamson, Woodcock, Hill FOR
FOR 345
AGAINST 294
As Scenario 1, but this time
- DUP vote AGAINST
- Hermon (independent) votes AGAINST
FOR 334
AGAINST 305
As Scenario 2, but 15 ERG Tories switch to the side of the DUP
FOR 319
AGAINST 320
As Scenario 2 (all ERG back Deal), but then squeezing the Labour pro-Deal Group instead
Reduce that group to Hoey, Mann and 5 others, and assume *every* Tory votes for
FOR 320
AGAINST 319
As Scenario 4, but then assume that 6 of the Tories that lost the whip *do not vote*
FOR 315
AGAINST 318
- ALL the Tories (inc. ALL the ERG)
- The vast majority of the Tories that lost the whip
- And about 10 Labour MPs
(the latter could be replaced by the DUP)
This is - to put it lightly - a major ask
jonworth.eu/downloads/majo…
Numbers also based on MV3:
hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2019-0…
Comments and critique v welcome!
/ends