Thread by @jonworth

So tunnelling in Brussels... means more diagramming for me!

New #BrexitDiagram V28, in light of today's developments

tl;dr - even though everyone is talking about a Deal, that doesn't make a Deal more likely. It makes an Article 50 extension and a General Election more likely.

Above all that the mood is positive means the chances of an Article 50 extension are up - because "a deal is around the corner" gives Johnson cover to extend, and the EU reason to not deny the UK an extension

Even *were* a Deal struck at the European Council it is not possible to comply with the Benn Act and get it all done and ratified by 31 October, so delay is inevitable

And that in turn means other things happen in between (the vote on the Queen's Speech for example)

Overall probabilities and changes since pre-tunnelling:
2% ⬇️ No Deal 31 Oct
6% ⬇️ Revoke by 31 Oct
14% ⬆️⬆️ Stalemate
50% ⬆️ General Election 2019
13% ⬇️ General Election 2020
13% ⬇️ #PeoplesVote 2020
2% ⬇️ Brexit with Deal

Direct link to high res PNG:
brexitdiagram.files.wordpress.com/2019/10/brexit…

And as ever all the .PNG, .PDF, .ODS and draw(dot)io XML is on my blog here: jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

/ends