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, 3 tweets, 3 min read
So @timjoyce11 rightly pointed out that #BrexitDiagram V27.1 did not adequately cover what would happen if May's Deal were brought back on 19 Oct with a #PeoplesVote attached...

V27.2 tries to cover this
We know that @hilarybennmp would want to try this route on 19 Oct, it's hard to know if there's a majority for it (it's ages since @peterkyle tried similar)

Plus what would happen were it successful has not even been debated - would Johnson actually do this? Or sooner resign?
Chances of a GE slip a little, chances of a #PeoplesVote increase a little

High res image here:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…

And as ever all on my blog:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
So tunnelling in Brussels... means more diagramming for me!

New #BrexitDiagram V28, in light of today's developments
tl;dr - even though everyone is talking about a Deal, that doesn't make a Deal more likely. It makes an Article 50 extension and a General Election more likely.
Above all that the mood is positive means the chances of an Article 50 extension are up - because "a deal is around the corner" gives Johnson cover to extend, and the EU reason to not deny the UK an extension
Read 6 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Thanks to feedback from @Astro_Wright (who rightly pointed out I was missing an arrow that Corbyn could continue to avoid a VONC post-Queen's Speech), there's a new #BrexitDiagram V27.1 - this doesn't change the outcomes though
Reminder how all this compares to last week:
3% ⬇️ No Deal 31 Oct
8% ⬇️⬇️ Revoke by 31 Oct
10% 🆕 Stalemate
48% ⬆️ General Election 2019
14% ↔️ General Election 2020
14% ⬇️⬇️ #PeoplesVote 2020
3% ⬆️ Brexit with Deal
What's caused the changes?

Essentially it's because now all the decisions UK side will have to happen after the European Council, and working out the precise sequencing of each stage is complex
Read 4 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
🤯

Sometimes #Brexit just gets a whole lot more complex

And that makes the #BrexitDiagram a whole load worse...

New version 27 - now a massive 5930x8318 pixels in size, to make sense of it all!
So what changed here?
- the @DaleVince @JolyonMaugham @joannaccherry case
- negotiations close to breaking down in Brussels
- the Govt suggesting the Commons will sit Saturday 19 Oct, and how this plays with the Queen's Speech and vote on that
All of this has the chances of No Deal, #PeoplesVote and Revoke slipping a bit, the chances of a General Election steady in comparison to last week. And a new entry - that all this ends up with more stalemate has a 10% chance
Read 5 tweets

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Becca Seyfried
@BeccaGoldilocks
Dear leave voters,

You can’t honestly say you voted for a no deal Brexit in 2016. No one did. It simply wasn’t on the table three years ago.

We were promised a deal in 2016, and that is what leave voters voted for.
Not one leave campaigner spoke in favour of no deal during the referendum campaign. No one. Not UKIP, Farage, Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Gove etc. Even Vote Leave was clear that we’d leave with a deal.
Be honest. All talk of a no deal Brexit emerged after Maybot’s terrible deal was published, over two years after we voted. At least something unites us: we agree her deal is awful. It’s far inferior to our current terms, not least because we’d take rules without making them.
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Prof Tanja Bueltmann
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For this not to happen @ukhomeoffice would have to process
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or
~5000 applications (no deal)
*every single day* from today. This will never work. That is why MPs should help press the stop button now before it is too late. We need a declaratory system. 1/
If you agree that the settled status system is not good enough; that, as @YvetteCooperMP rightly pointed out, it would create "Windrush on steroids", please write to your MP today to tell them to back the @JCWI_UK recommendations set out here: jcwi.org.uk/guaranteeing-s… 2/
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Why Labour #Brexit Conference policy is flawed

Unfortunately Ben is wrong here, Corbyn is following the agreed policy here because that policy let's him do exactly what he wants on Brexit, not what the members want

The policy is a well crafted stitch up
2) there's 2 consistent themes from Corbyn supporters
a) this is the policy Labour conference overwhelmingly supported
b) Corbyn's following that policy to the letter
Both of these are true, but neither stand up to critical examination if we're being honest
3) in terms of the first "this is the policy conference supported" well, as a remainer its essentially the same as the non meaningful vote May tried to create
May's choice was her deal or no. Deal which, if true, is no deal at all
It was the same with Labour conference policy
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People's Vote UK
@peoplesvote_uk
When we launched just 9 months ago, few believed we had a realistic chance of success. Today, thanks to everyone who kept fighting, we continue to prove the doubters wrong. At the end of an incredible 2018, here’s the story of how we got here:
March 2018: Even before the #PeoplesVote campaign launched, the groups that today support the campaign all moved into the same shared campaign office, as together, we are stronger
April 2018: the launch of the #PeoplesVote campaign was attended by over 1,500 people & had top actor @SirPatStew talk about why he backed a #PeoplesVote.
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
We need to talk about US trade policy and the impact on the UK, now we have a much clearer sense of where they're going in the next few years. Let's start with this FT story about a clause in the new NAFTA - ft.com/content/95e80a… 1/
Quite a lot of hardline Brexit supporters have suggested that the US will place fewer conditions on a trade deal than the EU do as members, or indeed in a future agreement. This is possible, but it doesn't mean unconditional 2/
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Read 11 tweets
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Joe Watts
@JoeWatts_
CORBYN SPEECH: Labour leader offers Brexit truce with May if her final deal is 'sensible' #PeoplesVote #FinalSay independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
A couple of thoughts about this Brexit offer that Jeremy Corbyn has made to Theresa May...(thread)....
Until now Labour’s position has been that it would only vote for Theresa May’s Brexit deal if it met Keir Starmer’s “six tests”...
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