1) We observe through history a recurring sequence of political revolution. The ancient Greeks referred to the cycle as Anacyclosis, a political doctrine derived from the works of Polybius (200-118 BC) and Aristotle (384-322 BC).
2) Timothy Ferguson, founder of The Institute for Anacyclosis, updated the original model to fit with modern times. Political society begins in tribal chiefdom. At a time when scarcity and insecurity prevails, tribes with a common language unite and settle under a single chief.
3) Customs become fixed and as farmers produce surplus food, many people obtain the necessities of life. When the chief draws his power not only from brute force, but also from the loyalty and affection of his people, he becomes a king.
4) Monarchy eventually corrupts into tyranny once the king develops a sense of entitlement and puts himself and his descendants above everyone else. As the tyrant becomes arrogant, his most powerful subjects challenge his rule. Thus tyranny is subdued by aristocracy.
5) The aristocrats in turn became accustomed to privilege and status. They strive for wealth and prestige than anything else. When citizens begin to resent the ruling upper class, aristocracy degenerates into an oppressive oligarchy. The lust for power causes few to oppress many.
6) The distribution of wealth anticipates next stage of the political cycle. When middle class is ascendant—the “hoi mesoi” in Aristotelian terms—democracy emerges, the best stage in sequence of evolution as society tends toward greater liberty, prosperity, equity and stability.
7) But in every democracy, over time, an influential class arises as wealth is concentrated among a small elite. They corrupt public officials and use political leverage to make policy to benefit themselves, expanding their power until the democratic system freezes into gridlock.
8) The middle class is miffed by inflation and debt or an unsolved crisis. Inequality rises and society becomes stratified between the opulent and the dependent; or masters and slaves in Aristotle’s terms, comprising “one class envious and another contemptuous of their fellows.”
9) Preservation of democracy depends upon the security of the middle class—only the middle class can absorb social tension between rich and poor. So when the size and economic standing of the middle class declines, a society departs from democracy and transforms into demagarchy.
10) As elected leaders fail to meet voters’ legitimate concerns and aspirations, citizens become disenchanted with “sell out” politicians and the prevailing economic wisdom. This gives birth to populism and sets the stage for the rule of the demagogue, or the “people’s champion.”
11) In January 2017, we wrote that we have arrived at this point in the current cycle. The rich are growing in wealth and the poor are growing in numbers. The middle class is no longer America’s economic majority. "Is America about to take a great leap in the dark?"
12) Trump, a textbook demagogue, plays to popular prejudices and misinformation, breaks with traditional rules, uses abusive language against opponents and outsiders, and shouts on public platforms to manipulate the masses. But in the end, he serves only himself.
13) The demagogue always feels threatened and sees plots everywhere. Though he seems to be living extravagantly, in fact he lives a shrunken existence caught in paranoia. He rules over others but can't rule over himself and eventually missteps.
14) Anacyclosis has nearly run its course in the West. If you have felt engulfed by darkness, know that, as Aristotle said, “It is during our darkest moments that we must focus to see the light.”
