Profile picture
, 3 tweets, 2 min read
The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted under the Paris Agreement would not limit global warming to 1.5°C, even with very challenging increases in the scale & ambition of emissions reductions after 2030.

ipcc.ch/sr15/
This is one of the key messages from #IPCC #SR15, saying that current emission pledges make 1.5°C infeasible. The figure is from Chapter 4.

I am not sure if that point comes across very clearly with the figure (I added the red boxes) and the dense text. Thoughts?
Also a little curious that the uncertainty range for 1.5C with high overshoot only shows the 25-75% range, so presumably there are scenarios that can get to 1.5C from the NDCs?
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Glen Peters

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Related hashtags

#IPCC #SR15

More from @Peters_Glen see all

Profile picture
Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
"[If this comment should have one recommendation], it would be that a poster of [this figure] hangs in every office where modelling takes place"

A solid critique of mathematical modelling & suggestions to improve...

1/
nature.com/articles/s4146…
"Yet if statistics is coming to terms with methodological abuse and wicked incentives, it appears legitimate to ask if something of the sort might be happening in the multiverse of mathematical modelling"
2/
"The preregistration of a modelling exercise before the model is coded is unheard of, although without assessing model purpose one cannot judge its quality." Also need to address model usefulness...

3/
Read 11 tweets
Profile picture
Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
1. Renewable capacity (including hydro & bioenergy) predicted to grow 50% to 2024, but not enough to cover all new capacity demand suggesting CO₂ emissions will continue to rise...

iea.org/renewables2019/
2. The IEA has been known to consistently under predict renewable growth. The IEA forecast is 14% higher than last year due to improved policies & increasing competitiveness.

Many will argue renewables will grow faster...

carbonbrief.org/analysis-renew…
3. The IEA has an accelerated case, suggesting most potential for acceleration is in China & Asia, with a big dose from Europe.

To meet the accelerated case need to address "grid integration, policy uncertainty & financing challenges"

iea.org/renewables2019/
Read 9 tweets
Profile picture
Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
"Bastin et al strongly overestimate the potential of forest restoration to mitigate climate change. The claim that global tree restoration is our most effective climate change solution is simply incorrect scientifically and dangerously misleading."
1/
 science.sciencemag.org/content/366/64…
When your Science paper gets four technical comments & three letters to the editor, perhaps pause for thought!

The edited article is here (abstract edited I believe) science.sciencemag.org/content/365/64…
2/
The four technical comments are open access:

@SimonLLewis et al science.sciencemag.org/content/366/64…

@PFriedling et al science.sciencemag.org/content/366/64…

Veldman et al science.sciencemag.org/content/366/64…

Grainger et al science.sciencemag.org/content/366/64…

Author response: science.sciencemag.org/content/366/64…

3/
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
The Economist
@TheEconomist
The history of climate change explained in 6 charts from our climate briefing. A thread economist.com/briefing/2019/…
CO2 emissions across the world are (almost) off the charts
In 1900 burning fossil fuels produced about 2bn tonnes of carbon dioxide. Today, the number is nearly 20 times greater
Read 12 tweets
Profile picture
✨💎Jewely BlueCheck💎✨
@Jewel4Trump
Anyone frm #Paris #France? We need to locate #IsabelMaxwell
•She apparently lives there & she may live w/ her sister #GhislaneMaxwell there. For decades their lives parallelled & intertwined w/ Same Men

•Isabel ‘married’ #AlfredSeckel an ILLUSIONIST who mirrored #Epstein a LOT
•Early 2000’s a #VirginIslands co called ENSIGN CONSULTING LTD sued #IsabelMaxwell & #AlSeckle
•Oddly court docs are SEALED🤔

•2015 Looks like #Seckel was SUICIDED in Saint-Cirq-Lapopie in #France’s Lot Valley (south)

•Seckel hung in same crowd/colleges as #Epstein then..
..Married #IsabelMaxwell in 2007

•Also In 2007 Isabel & #Seckel went to #Google HQ for X-Prize Foundation’s Radical Benefit for Humanity hosted by #LarryPage

•Seckel went to Epstein’s #PedoIsland at least once & was also known for throwing eclectic elite parties 🎉
Read 13 tweets
Profile picture
CSM
@usacsmret
2020 Climate Madness Looms - The Post & Email thepostemail.com/2019/04/05/202…
The year 2020 is shaping up to be one of madness when it comes to the climate change debate. Several huge milestones are in the cards and these cards are on the table.
One is the US Presidential election, where the entire world wants to see if President Trump can pull off another skeptical miracle, or curse, depending on who you ask.
Read 13 tweets
Profile picture
CSM
@usacsmret
2020 climate madness looms – Several huge milestones are in the cards climatedepot.com/2019/04/05/202…
By far the biggest is that the mythical $100 billion a year is supposed to start flowing from America and the rest of the supposedly guilty developed countries, to the developing countries, who claim to be suffering increasingly bad weather because of our prosperity.
In addition, under the Paris Agreement pretty much all of the countries in the world are supposed to raise the level of ambition in their national climate action plans. Note that for the developing countries these action plans are contingent on getting the $100 billion a year,
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
nonouzi
@Gerrrty
#Paris / #JérômeRodrigues joins #GiletsJaunes for' #Acte12 of the movement today
#Yellowvests
#Paris #JeromeRodrigues surrounded by the press and many #Giletsjaunes. #Acte12
#Yellowvests #France #ViolencesPolicières
#JeromeRodrigues : "We have had 9200 shots of #flashball in two months, more than the last five years" #Giletsjaunes #Yellowvests #Paris #Acte12 #ViolencesPolicières #Macron
Read 38 tweets
Profile picture
Ed Hawkins
@ed_hawkins
Today the IPCC released its Special Report on the implications of a global temperature increase of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and whether it is physically possible & feasible to achieve this climate stabilisation. The Summary for Policymakers: report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_…
There are some key messages in the report. Bottom line: there is a substantial reduction in risks when stabilising at 1.5°C compared to 2°C; it is physically possible to achieve this lower stabilisation, but extremely challenging in infrastructure terms.
Human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, with a likely range of 0.8°C to 1.2°C. Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate.
Read 31 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Global #THiNK #murals #aggressors #climateaction #ImCallingThis #VRA #EpsteinScandal #Context #Detective #1o5C #Illuvatar #Beller #Paris #France #breeding #So #Bradshaw #UnitedStates #data #lawsuit #Appleby #WallStreet #ethical #abuse
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!