Thread by @james_bowley

#IStandWithCorbyn was trending.

Clearly there’s support for Jeremy Corbyn within the Labour party membership & beyond, but are people close to him looking closely at his personal polling & the polling in recent decades, and putting pressure on him to step down?

THREAD …

In the most recent monthly Ipsos MORI Political Monitor, Jeremy Corbyn’s net leadership satisfaction scores hit -60% (16% satisfied vs. 76% dissatisfied), a level seen by no other leader of the opposition (or prime minister) since this series began in the 1970s.

2/27

What’s happened since the last general election & the summer of 2017, when Jeremy Corbyn’s popularity was at its peak?

Is his support holding up with some groups of voters, has he won certain groups over since 2017, and do the trends suggest that a recovery is likely?

3/27

I’ve reviewed the data from Ipsos MORI (thanks to @keiranpedley for some hard-to-find data) & looked at various demographic groups since the 2017 election (so you don’t have to), to illustrate the scale of the challenge for Mr Corbyn.

WARNING: Thread contains many charts.

4/27

@keiranpedley As always, a reminder that any polling is only ever a snapshot, not a prediction, and that the margins of error are bigger with smaller groups of voters being polled, but the trends are always worth paying attention to, as well as the trends & results from the past.

5/27

@keiranpedley Before the general election campaign in 2017, Jeremy Corbyn’s overall net leadership satisfaction score was at a (then) joint-record low of -41%. By the time of the election in June 2017, his net scores had improved by 30% to -11%. His best ever score was -1% in July 2017.

6/27

@keiranpedley Since then, while he did lead Mrs May for some months, his net scores were still negative & have been in more-or-less steady decline since the summer of 2017.

Where are the big changes happening? Are some groups keeping the faith, or is support slipping across the board?

7/27

@keiranpedley 2017 Labour voters: Since the general election in 2017, Jeremy Corbyn has seen his net satisfaction scores with Labour voters fall by 83% from a post-election rating of +56% to the most recent (and worse-ever) score of -27%.

This is important.

8/27

@keiranpedley As these are people who actually voted Labour while he was leader in 2017, this should be cause for concern.

Likewise, eye-watering net scores from those who voted Conservative (-77%) and LibDem (-69%) in 2017, suggesting a total failure to win over those voters.

9/27

@keiranpedley Among 18-24 year olds, Mr Corbyn saw his ratings improve by 33% during the election campaign from +1% to +34%, & peaked during the summer of 2017 at +52%.

His net ratings have since fallen by *95 points* to -43% in September 2019, the biggest drop across the age groups.

10/27

@keiranpedley If Mr Corbyn’s satisfaction ratings improve by the same amount during the next election campaign as the last, he would still score 11% lower than before the 2017 campaign began, which indicates just how far Mr Corbyn’s ratings have fallen with young voters.

11/27

@keiranpedley With older voters, while Mr Corbyn saw a significant improvement in satisfaction with voters aged 45-54 in the spring of 2017, it's since slumped by 46 points to -65%, similar to the levels seen for 55-64 year olds (-68%) & over 65s (-70%), around 20% down on March 2017.

12/27

@keiranpedley With middle class (social grades ABC1) & working class (C2DE) voters, similar trends.

Net satisfaction in Mr Corbyn rose by 30% during the 2017 election campaign, to around -10%, but satisfaction is now at -65% with ABC1s, around 25% worse than in March 2017.

13/27

@keiranpedley With public sector & private sector workers, the general election campaign saw net satisfaction in Mr Corbyn rise by around 40%.

Since then, the net satisfaction levels have fallen by over 60%. With private sector workers it now lies at -69%, 25% lower than March 2017.

14/27

@keiranpedley A similar picture across England, in the regions and greater London.

All showing net satisfaction ratings for Mr Corbyn now significantly lower than they were in March 2017.

In the Midlands, for example, the ratings are now 60 points down on the summer 2017 peak.

15/27

@keiranpedley Slight difference seen between male & female voters, on Mr Corbyn’s leadership.

As with other groups, satisfaction rose considerably during the 2017 campaign (& beyond), but now sits well below levels seen in March 2017.

For male voters, that level is now -67%.

16/27

@keiranpedley So, to answer the question: "Are there any groups of voters where satisfaction in Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership is holding up?"

Short answer: "No."

Longer answer: "Some groups of voters have *really* fallen away."

17/27

@keiranpedley How do these current levels of satisfaction with these groups compare to other LOTOs immediately before a general election campaign begins? I’ve compared the numbers from 2010, 2015, 2017 & latest figures, and the results are below.

18/27

@keiranpedley As you can see, across all the different groups of voters, the pattern is similar, and the gap between the levels of satisfaction seen for Cameron, the only LOTO to successfully win a GE since 1997, and current levels of satisfaction in Mr Corbyn, is quite stark.

19/27

@keiranpedley If the LOTO and Labour party staff are doing the same sort of analysis, they should be a) concerned, b) doing a lot of their own polling, and c) planning a way to turn this around, quickly.

20/27

@keiranpedley Is it possible for Mr Corbyn to turn this around and win?
In these volatile & unpredictable times, it would be foolish to rule it out.

This from @gsoh31 is well worth reading on the subject, and asks many good questions.

tinyurl.com/y6byu6on

21/27

@keiranpedley @gsoh31 Does it matter?

It’s worth noting that over the last 40 years, no leader of the opposition who wasn’t routinely and significantly ahead of the PM on the leadership satisfaction scores went on to become PM themselves.

22/27

@keiranpedley @gsoh31 Tony Blair, the only LOTO since 1979 to win an overall majority, averaged a net satisfaction level of +21% & had an average lead over John Major of 60%.

David Cameron, the only other LOTO to become PM since 1979, averaged +7% & averagea a 33% lead over Gordon Brown.

23/27

@keiranpedley @gsoh31 LOTOs who didn’t become PM since 1979 include:

Michael Foot vs. Mrs Thatcher.

Neil Kinnock vs Mrs Thatcher.

Neil Kinnock vs. John Major.

William Hague vs. Tony Blair.

Their satisfaction records are below.

24/27

@keiranpedley @gsoh31 The other general-election losing LOTOs since 1979 (apart from Mr Corbyn) were Michael Howard vs. Tony Blair and Ed Miliband vs. David Cameron, both of whom scored more impressive leadership satisfaction scores than Mr Corbyn over the last 4 years.

25/27

@keiranpedley @gsoh31 History & polling are against Mr Corbyn, but if the votes land in the right places, it’s not impossible that he could become PM, but if he does, he could enter 10 Downing Street with the lowest leadership satisfaction levels ever seen by an incoming prime minister.

26/27

@keiranpedley @gsoh31 With thanks to @keiranpedley & Ipsos MORI for all the data (going back 40 years).

If you don’t believe in polling, Ipsos MORI, or this particular polling series, do ignore it, but if you’ve got this far, I’m interested to hear any thoughts or opinions.

27/27

THREAD ENDS

Obviously the final part of each chart here should be September 2019, not 2017. Thanks to the person who pointed it out.