Thread by @BramEbus

Mining, conflict and instability in southern Venezuela. Read our new report about armed groups wreaking havoc south of the Orinoco river.

"Gold and Grief in Venezuela’s Violent South" @CrisisGroup @ICGlatam

crisisgroup.org/latin-america-…

/2 Venezuelan crime syndicates and Colombian guerrilla groups are creating new threats across southern Venezuela as they compete for control. Their expansion and cross-border operations risk destabilising the entire region that shares a border with three countries. @CrisisGroup

/3 Mines are controlled by non-state armed groups that operate in close alliances with Venezuela’s armed forces. Illegally extracted gold trickles-up to higher government circles and security officials.

/4 Loyalties on the ground are volatile and unpredictable, but any sort of foreign forces intervening would cause different armed groups to back up the Maduro government and most probably cause a protracted low-intensity conflict with many civilian casualties.

/5 Outside powers and the Venezuelan opposition should also curb calls for a foreign military intervention in Venezuela, which only would serve to galvanise these groups to fight foreign armies and protect their patrons within the Maduro government.

/6 Even as the political crisis in Venezuela unfolds, neighbouring countries and concerned foreign states should seek to mitigate both the threat of a broader regional crisis and the dangers local communities face. Key words are communication and non-escalation.

/7 The fate of the south is inextricably linked to Venezuela’s political future, but the suffering and extreme isolation of local communities, as well as the threats that mining riches and armed factions pose across the region, should put the south at the centre of concern.