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, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Boris Johnson's Brexit deal is a conveyor belt to no deal. Here's why:
- It passes
- We leave on or shortly after 31 October (inc. extra time for legal stuff)
- All our EU treaties and trade agreements end instantly
- In transition period until Dec 2020 or Dec 2021 with extension
- During transition, we don't feel the *effects* of having left because transitional legal framework insulates us, but we're already out out.
- The microsecond transition ends, we're back in no deal territory. (Minus whatever has been cobbled together during transition).
However, unlike the current situation, we no longer have an escape hatch to avoid no deal. Now, we can always revoke A50 and stay in. But after Brexit that option is gone. So it will be "reach a deal any deal no matter how desperate/poor" or "no deal". There is no third choice.
And the EU will know that. So our negotiating leverage will be minimal. We will have to beg on our knees for any scraps they throw our way, because the automatic alternative is the no deal cliff edge.

Moral: don't get on the conveyor belt!
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Edwin Hayward - 'Slaying Brexit Unicorns' book🦄🗡
@uk_domain_names
Every new trade deal the EU does shrinks the "universe" of candidates we can make our own deals with after Brexit. Put simply: we're running out of meaningful partners other than US, China, India. Combine with gravity of trade, and there's little merit in making our own deals.
For example Japan. 3 years ago the EU didn't have an agreement. Now it has a comprehensive one. So we know we can't get a better deal with Japan than we already have as EU members. Scrub them off the list.
Same for Canada, Singapore, Mercosur nations etc. Cross them all off.
Read 4 tweets
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Edwin Hayward - 'Slaying Brexit Unicorns' book🦄🗡
@uk_domain_names
Stephen Barclay opens main debate by calling on Letwin to withdraw his amendment. (With a side of snide at the SNP.)
Carefully taking interventions from yes-people so they can all have a jolly good "hear hear" round together.
Kate Hoey says the people of NI are being let down by the lack of consent mechanism in the deal.

SB: There is one. [Not clear there is.]
Read 19 tweets
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Edwin Hayward - 'Slaying Brexit Unicorns' book🦄🗡
@uk_domain_names
Jeremy Corbyn: "Supporting the deal today would merely fire the starting pistol on a race, a race to the bottom on standards."
Follows up by asking if Boris Johnson can confirm that, if a deal isn't reached by December 2020, the UK (ex NI) will fall onto WTO terms (i.e. no deal).

Not sure why the question, since that's the only logical outcome of A50 and transition. Perhaps he needs public confirmation?
Boris Johnson fires back by attacking Corbyn's tone. If you can't play the ball, play the player.
Read 68 tweets

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Simon Carswell
@SiCarswell
Boris Johnson’s #Brexit Border plan proposes a new customs border on the island of Ireland & customs posts at unspecified ’designated locations’

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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
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Essentially 30 minutes filming an empty chair would have been just as useful
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