Thread by @faisalislam

No 10 source: process to elect new leader would begin after leaving EU [NB that would be May 22 if MV passed]

No 10 source: Timetable to elect new leader in hand of others - PM will stay during process.

This is about new leadership for phase 2.

Seems to me that PM is making it conditional on having to get through phase 1 that her general message it is
price she is prepared to pay and that the message of her team is that “this is national interest above personal interest”

Anyway in terms of her actual exit date - that is a function of when the UK actually legally leaves [May 22nd IF MV3 passes this week], and then a process starting the day after that could take weeks.

However, in helping solve one problem - getting Tory eurosceptics onside, she surely makes it more difficult to get Labour switchers still required - as one Tory Remainer says they are being invited to back a process that leads to a Boris/ Rees Mogg Brexit.

Boris Johnson backing Withdrawal Deal to ERG confirmed by top ally:

https://twitter.com/conorburnsuk/status/1110972606214295553?s=21

Rees Mogg tells Beth that if DUP abstain, then much of the rest of ERG will come on side for Withdrawal Deal and it will pass...

NEW/ @SkyData polls most of the indicative vote options - referendum is the only one with net positive support:

https://twitter.com/skydata/status/1110988173167988737?s=21

“Not a chance!” says ERG deputy chair Mark Francois on whether he’s changed mind to back deal after PM’s “back me then sack me” offer

So we will definitely be having a confirmatory public vote determining the future of Brexit in June and July...

Of around 100,000 Conservative members...

***** NEW via @skydavidblevins

DUP leader Arlene Foster tells @SkyNews her party “regrets” that it is unable to support the Withdrawal Agreement while it “poses a threat to the integrity of the UK.” #Brexit

Appalling news for Number 10 - full statement - doesn’t deal with Treaty level changes she said

“We cannot back something that damages the Union” Foster tells @skydavidblevins ...
Foster says she doesn’t feel abandoned by Tory Brexiters - she says Brexit is important for her too but the most important issue is the future of the union.

So if the deal gets through (somehow, if there’s even a vote) then we must be close to December where the DUP would ponder removing confidence from a Government trying to implement the backstop...

Absent 50 or so Labour MPs wanting to hand Number 10 and the future of Brexit to Boris Johnson or Dominic Raab - we are surely heading to the ballot boxes...

Exit date SI vote result coming up. Labour whipped in favour - it will pass. But a number of Tory rebels. This is the official acknowledgement Brexit is delayed for first time...

Change UK law Brexit date from 29 March to 12 April or 22 May
Ayes 441
Noes 105

Massive majority 336 - Brexit officially delayed in UK law too. But loads of Tory rebels voting against.

Also - slipped by that there were even more pro indicative votes Tory rebels on the business motion - 33.

All options fail to get a majority BUT
referendum and customs union come out on top - secure more votes than the PMs Withdrawal Deal ever has done.

That is a huge number for a second referendum 268 - includes 8 Tories - 14 switchers from a “confirmatory public vote” happening.

The indicative vote process has crushed harder forms of Brexit:

No deal -240 - worse than PM deal
Malthouse part 2: -283 wise than PM deal

IFG’s visual take on indicative votes. Norwayish compromises did worse than expected, No Deal crushed even more than PM’s deal - can see route to majorities for customs union and also something plus Public Vote.

Common Market 2 on life support - will backers attach it to PV now?

This is the graph that matters from the IFG - obviously where Yes plus abstain might get you well above 300, there is a plausible path to a majority - basically first 5 - but party distribution v interesting.

Top line: No Deal will never get “explicit consent” PM said it needs..

Labours vote partially whipped Cons not - but the latter appears more fundamentally split than Labour from the above. So the path to am alternative appears to lie through Oppo whips office more than Govt whip

*** DUP abstained on Efta-EEA AND on Common Market 2.0...

Given they voted against other propositions including customs union - that is an invitation to talk

DUP also abstained on No Deal with one who voted against - reinforcing my top line above.

If No Deal occurs accidentally it will have to be with the explicit nod from EU Council veto, but it won’t get one from Commons.

... special mention to Barry Gardiner, who, well, yes, errrrr, voted FOR the Beckett-Kyle-Wilson amendment on a confirmatory public vote:

On the Ken Clarke Customs Union amendment - the SNP, LibDems abstained - majority very close - but Commons Remainers emboldened against soft Brexit compromise by petition/ march- holding out now for Referendum or Revoke.

Next stage graph here is to combine it with a type of Venn diagram to see whether combinations of two of the above get you a majority - and plot MV2 on there.... @ifgevents

Common Market 2.0 did worse than expected - but could the DUP put it back in the game? could be combined with PV too - they tactically aligned to have the indicative votes - could they join forces?

Last point - the 100k eurosceptic Tory membership selectorate gets to choose the Prime Minister in June who will negotiate the future partnership that faces this same set of House of Commons numbers as below:

Three years of the same.

Unless new PM pivots soft. Or election.