Thread by @Justin_Ling

Rip your TV out of the wall, throw that radio in the trash, close all other tabs — keep it locked right here as I get a little drunk at the Liberal victory/loss party. #canadavotes2019

We've got six of seven seats in Newfoundland & Labrador reporting — every one but the interesting seat, in St John's East, where Jack Harris is hoping to take the seat back from the NDP (The fact that there's no results yet probably means people are still voting there. Exciting!)

So we're still two hours from the next sets of polls closing, but we're getting some details from the East and....it looks roughly like we were expecting. The Liberals look set to hold most of what they had — the NDP may take St John's East, the Tories may take a few in NB.

Meanwhile at the Liberal party, nobody's been let in yet. But I'm surprised by how small the room is. We're at the Montreal convention centre: this space could've been much bigger. Not clear whether it's security concerns of whether it's a decision to keep things intimate.

Big fights to watch in Atlantic Canada:
Central Nova: Tory vs. Liberal
Fredericton: Green vs. Liberal
Halifax: NDP vs. Liberal

Also: two popular provincial Tories are running in Cape Breton, where both the longtime Liberal incumbents aren't running again. So there could be some surprises there.

If we start seeing 3 or 4 ridings in Nova Scotia flip to the Tories, that might be an indication that we've under-estimated the Conservatives.

Or it means that local Conservatives were just personally popular.

We will, unfortunately, need to wait for all the results to come in

Country star/Tory candidate George Canyon is a few hundred votes behind Liberal incumbent Sean Fraser. The Conservatives really thought they'd take this. (Still might! But looking less and less likely.)

Greens have been hoping to pick up Charlottetown and/or Frederiction, two places they made breakthroughs provincially. They're competitive in the former, not the latter, at the moment.

The NDP have been praying for breakthroughs around Halifax. Currently competitive in 2/4 seats

The NDP were hoping to take back Acadie-Bathurst, in New Brunswick. Jagmeet Singh even visited it. But, nope. Distant third.

The power of a name: Former city councillor and past NDP candidate Archie MacKinnon is running third in Sydney—Victoria, with 21% of the vote. He's running as an independent. He's also known as a massive Maple Leafs superfan. cbc.ca/news/canada/no…

Maxime Bernier's People's Party has captured 0.5% of the vote thus far. One independent candidate in Cape Breton has garnered more votes thus far than all the PPC candidates combined.

The Conservatives are doing about 4 points better than they were expected to, thus far. TBD if that means we're looking at more Conservative polls first, or whether the Tories are just doing better than expected.

We've got one Quebec riding coming in, because Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine spans two time zones!

The results thus far have both the Liberals and Conservatives doing better than expected in Atlantic Canada and the NDP/Greens/PPC doing worse. So the smaller parties might've seen a bit of negative momentum in the final days.

Et voila, the Greens are leading in Fredericton by a not-insignificant margin.

If you were looking for some big NDP breakthrough, there's no evidence of it happening anywhere in Atlantic Canada.

It appears some TV station had shown Beausejour going Green. That was a mistake — it's a Liberal hold.

Just another reason why you can't trust TV and you should be following me.

So these results are basically very good news for the Liberals. The Greens and NDP were limited to one pickup apiece, and the Conservatives preformed on their low end. It inches them closer to majority territory.

But also: who the hell knows! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

At this point, the Liberals have 41% of the vote and 75% of the seats.

At the risk of pumping the Liberals' tires, here — most of the ridings where the Conservatives are really strong in Nova Scotia/New Brunswick, they're running former MLAs or MPs. So they've got name recognition. And names mean a lot out East.

We're a very name-based society. Also matters who your fadder is.

Things may teeter-totter a bit, still, but I think we can say the following:
Liberals: 🥳
Conservatives: 😬
NDP: 😐
Green: 🌲😚🌲

So if I understand things properly (and I rarely do) — we're going to see some results right now, but many polling locations aren't going to shut properly 'til 10. So things may come in slow until 10:15 or so.

The Liberal party is, meanwhile, still empty. Some supporters are milling off in a corner but it is conspicuously empty right now.

Should I start drinking

Weird twist of the night.

https://twitter.com/apratte/status/1186454624984686593?s=19

Results are preliminary, but it looks like I'm going to get myself a beer

For real, these numbers are very early but the Liberal numbers are looking shockingly strong. The Bloc are leading in surprisingly few ridings. So frig knows what this all means yet.

Beer was $11! Maybe we can't afford Trudeau after all.

Ok, the Liberal party is just starting to fill up but people seem quite stoked. These numbers are great for the Liberals.

The Bloc wave, tentatively, looks weaker than expected. In Ontario, not a lot of ridings changing hands.

Bernier looking like he'll lose Beauce

Going into this, the NDP would be *very lucky* to keep three seats in Quebec (Boulerice, Brousseau, Dusseault.) We're just starting to get those results in, but things look good for Ruth-Ellen Brousseau.

Polls everywhere are closed. The Liberals are sitting on 100 seats. Looking like a minority government but things could change quickly.

If you're seeing a second Green on the board, that's Dufferin-Caledon. One poll in. Doesn't seem likely that stays Green.

The Bloc are actually performing better than expected, vote wise, but it seems like they may win fewer seats than expected. The Liberals performed well in the centre of the province and the Conservatives stayed strong south of Quebec.

The Prairies were by no means a sweep. Still early, but looks like the NDP are going to be competitive in Saskatoon, the Liberals keep their seat in Regina, and the NDP/Liberals split Winnipeg.

Also: Liberals will win the most seats.

All of Toronto is currently red — I wouldn't expect that to hold. If it does, the NDP have totally fallen apart in the final days.

Though, by comparison, we have way more results in around the GTA and the Liberals are holding their own to a surprising degree against the Tories.

While we weren't looking, some Atlantic Canada ridings flipped and flipped again. But the Tories are back down to 5. The Liberals are back in the lead in Cape Breton. Losing either of those seats would be a huge symbolic loss for the Liberals.

Conservative deputy leader Lisa Raitt, much loved in her party, is behind Liberal star candidate Adam van Koeverden

It looks like independent Jane Philpott will lose her riding.

We're missing a whack of ridings, still, but the NDP + Liberals are currently 3 seats short of a majority.

The NDP seem set to keep two seats in Quebec. In Laurier-Saint Marie, where Liberal star candidate Steven Guilbeault is running, the Bloc is up with a slight lead.

Noted Liberal maverick Nathaniel Erskine-Smith comfortably wins his Toronto riding. By a more comfortable margin than Finance Minister Bill Morneau.

It looks like there's only two non-Tory seats in play in Alberta — Calgary Centre, with Liberal Kent Hehr; and Edmonton—Strathcona, where the Liberals might take that NDP seat. (The Conservatives are leading in both right now, with a few polls in.)

Oh, and just like that — the NDP jumps into the lead in Edmonton—Strathcona.

Mid-count is always a rough time to start prognosticating on leaders' futures, but if the NDP gets shut out of Toronto again — nevermind Brampton, where the NDP wanted to make gains — it's hard to imagine Singh staying around.

Meanwhile, at the Liberal Party.....the room is mostly empty. So odd.

Good luck making sense of these results. Liberals likely to lose deputy leader Ralph Goodale in Regina, but score a surprise upset in Northern Saskatchewan.

At this point, the chances of another Green pickup are slowly declining. Victoria is the only likely pickup left without results in, I think.

In B.C., where the NDP were supposed to have done crackerjack, it looks like they'll lose a seat. Maybe two.

It's worth noting that a Liberal majority is still possible.

Let's check in with The Rebel (c/o @pdmcleod)

"We are the fastest growing political party in Canadian history," says Maxime Bernier, having just lost his riding by 4,000 votes. His party seems set to earn less than 2% of the vote.

@pdmcleod The Marxist-Leninist Party is spanking the Communist Party by a 2-to-1 margin.

@pdmcleod In Vancouver—Granville, it's a 3-way split between the Liberals, Tories, and Jody Wilson-Raybould.

@pdmcleod The Liberals are, barring a huge change, going to win every seat in Toronto proper, just like 2015. That, in my opinion, is the most surprising bit of this whole election. And the NDP can't even blame the Greens — the margins were wide.

@pdmcleod The fact that the Tories got totally crushed in the GTA should be giving them pause. Former MP Ted Optiz lost by a 15 point margin in *Etobicoke.* You can't blame that on Doug Ford.

@pdmcleod Renata Ford, widow of later Toronto Mayor Rob Ford, is around 3% in her riding, running for the People's Party.

The number at which the party leader can spin their results as not being a dismal, abject failure:
NDP: 25
Bloc: 30
Green: 3
Conservative: 110

Megan Leslie, who lost her seat in 2015; is currently having a love-in with Lisa Raitt, who just lost her seat; live on TV. And it's lovely.

It looks like the Conservatives will take Kenora, which includes Grassy Narrows First Nation. The NDP really hoped Rudy Turtle would take that riding. Looks like they'll get third.

We've got 3 leaders speeches to get to before Trudeau speaks. But this party just turned on the music (Arcade Fire, if you're wondering) as the vaguely-bored audience mills about.

It's so bizarre. I walked into this room thinking it was small — it looks massive for the modest crowd assembled here.

Oh, we've got Pablo Rodriguez here with a warm-up to keep the crowd going. It could be 1am, if not later, before we hear from Trudeau.

Patio Lanterns is playing. Please impeach this government.

Jagmeet Singh is addressing his supporters in B.C. now. He says he's going to be meeting "my caucus" this week to discuss the way forward. So little chance he's resigning.

The NDP, in the end, appear to have won just a single seat in Quebec.

What the fuck. Jagmeet Singh is still talking. Andrew Scheer is heading to the microphone. And Justin Trudeau is just about to take the stage.

I'm told three had been some conversations between the parties and things just sort of broke down. So now we've got a real clusterfuck on our hands.

"Canadians rejected division and negativity," Trudeau begins, having just won an incredibly divisive and negative election.

"You want to go forward with us, but you also wanted a louder voice in Ottawa," says Trudeau to Quebec voters.

To the West: "I've heard your frustration." Promises to work for/with them. Gonna be hard with no Liberal MPs in Saskatchewan or Alberta.

Trudeau makes a brief promise to do more on Indigenous issues and climate change.

Nothing much specific about how he'll work with the other parties in Parliament. Pretty quick speech, overall.

That's gonna be it from me tonight. Look for an @OPPOcast episode tomorrow morning and a piece from me in @ForeignPolicy about what it all means.