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, 4 tweets, 3 min read
My attempt to explain the Northern Ireland protocol of the Withdrawal Agreement and what would be required to make it work. It might shock you to learn that I think alternative arrangements may be part of the answer... prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-…
And a slightly more involved explanation of the Northern Ireland protocol from @MichaelGasiorek and @uk_tpo - but including the same fundamental problem of WTO compatibility if no tariffs are charged NI to GB - blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/2019/10/…
@MichaelGasiorek @uk_tpo I think with careful design we could get a reasonable solution for Great Britain - Northern Ireland trade, which if not winning the support of DUP could ease a lot of fears. Obfuscation on the other hand raises fears. Let's get used to such realities of trade policy.
@MichaelGasiorek @uk_tpo And now @AnnaJerzewska on processes for Northern Ireland - GB trade. I think we're all broadly in agreement - paperwork / checks are the default . Not sure why Gov are so confused (perhaps not getting the right advice?)
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More from @DavidHenigUK see all

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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Reason for government pushing a pre-Brexit election, apart from believing they can win, is to avoid any risk of the deal being voted down or having to make concessions to get it through.
Making concessions to domestic groups to pass international treaties like trade deals is entirely normal, but unfortunately this has not been established in the UK political narrative, where it is assumed wrongly that government majority = treaty approval.
It would actually be a healthy process for Parliament to go through the Withdrawal Agreement properly, voting on amendments, and allowing the full range of arguments. It would probably improve the bill and the chances of success in Brexit phase 2. But it looks unlikely.
Read 4 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
To no great surprise except for those who listened to / saw the Government's scandalously misleading 'Get Ready for Brexit' adverts. Business and individuals as collateral damage for a self-obsessed PM and Government.
I think using the word flextension is just Tusk's little joke given he knows the state of UK politics
Things that won't happen #1: Boris Johnson apologises to the country for misleading them about the Brexit date, and takes full responsibility
Read 10 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
It took quite a few months in to talks for EU-US trade negotiations (TTIP, for newcomers) to be described as troubled. I think we can already describe UK-US trade talks as troubled, and they haven't even formally started mirror.co.uk/news/politics/…
It is important to recognise that TTIP was sunk in the court of public opinion through association with any potentially bad thing. And the same is happening with the UK-US trade deal. This story yesterday is about the trade bill but becomes about the US independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
Meanwhile campaign groups who opposed TTIP are busy getting the band back together again to oppose the UK-US trade deal. This builds on the suspicions that many of the population already have.
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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Sam Coates Sky
@SamCoatesSky
Jean Claude-Juncker on @RidgeOnSunday says that while a deal is possible, and his meeting with BJ was “rather positive” BUT
- The Withdrawal Agreement cannot be reopened
- The internal market “has to be preserved in its entirety”
JCJ on @RidgeOnSunday

- “If the Alternative Arrangements achieve the same goals (as the backstop) we don’t need the backstop”
- Could there be a NI/ROI border in the event of no deal. “Yes”
- “The British have to tell us the architectural nature of this border”
JCJ on @RidgeOnSunday

- Swipe at some brexiteer MPs, and Westminster in general, saying that some of them are forgetting history on Ireland, and they don’t get criticised enough because they’re in the mother of Parlaiments, which isn’t sitting
Read 5 tweets
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Nick Gutteridge
@nick_gutteridge
MSM reporting for duty here 🙋‍♂️Tytti Tuppurainen, representing the Finnish presidency of the EU Council, kicks off today's EU Parliament Brexit debate by warning: 'We have to acknowledge that currently a No Deal on 31 October is a quite likely outcome.'
She says: 'In July, the UK got a new Govt and a new PM. Unfortunately it is increasingly clear that this has not helped to clarify the situation on the UK's negotiation position. As the deadline of Oct 31 is fast approaching we are faced with more rather than less uncertainty.'
Jean-Claude says that at his meeting with Boris Johnson the UK PM 'assured us he continues to want an agreement but whatever happens the UK will leave the EU on the 31 October with or without an agreement. That's why the risk of a No Deal is palpable.'
Read 22 tweets
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Murphy de Pfeffel Murphy
@LiamTheBrewer
Thread.
#ireland #brexi

Having spent an hour tring to explain what's happening here to a #Brexit person in #England I'm now convinced that we are in serious trouble /1

#ireland #gfa
I don't believe that most people who voted leave have any malign intent towards us. I'm not a fan of the EU myself. Still less do I think its an England/Ireland thing, I was born in England, I was schooled there & my partner is English /2
But there is a yawning gap of comprehension about the troubles & what it took to stop it. /3
Read 25 tweets
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Dmitry Grozoubinski
@DmitryOpines
Dmitry's Anti No-Deal Starter Pack:

1. The UKs trade deficit with the EU doesn't mean the EU is on the ropes;

2. The Civil Service did an amazing job, but huge chunks of No Deal are impossible to prepare for, or rely on preparation by businesses (many of which can't);
3. Average EU tariffs are low, but they are prohibitively high in sectors like lamb where the EU is the UKs only existing customer.

4. The EU is not going to offer the UK tariff free access on day 1 of No Deal. Not through Article XXIV, not through anything.
5. WTO Rules are a baseline, ensuring the EU can't deliberately target UK goods for retaliation...

But that was never the risk. The WTO rules are a footpath, and leaving with No-Deal tears up the EU SM/CU highway while the UK is still driving on it;
Read 9 tweets
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Dmitry Grozoubinski
@DmitryOpines
1/ - Dmitry's Guide To Writing A No-Deal Is Project Fear Article -

Are you a Tory Lord who once had to share a cab with a Hungarian?
An Oxbridge chancer who wants to be on telly?

Just write an article about No-Deal being "Project Fear."

How? This guide can help!
2/ You want to open strong. I suggest opening by taking the position of those concerned about No-Deal to well beyond wild hyperbole.

"Project Fear would have you believe No-Deal will mean the Cthulu will rise from the depths and devour Albion in a tide of madness and despair!"
3/ Next, you want to dismiss everyone who disagrees with you as shills for Remain, the European Union or better and more inexplicably yet, Jeremy Corbyn.

After all only you, Mr Tory Peer and Deputy Chairman of Leave Means Leave, are TRULY impartial on this issue.
Read 18 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
Who isn’t fed up of the #Brexit hell-on-wheels show?
We want certainty, agreement, realism... In fact, we need compromise!

Could the #MalthouseCompromise be the olive branch that shows sign of dry land on the distant horizon? 🕊️
(I'm thinking esp of you, @BorderIrish)
1/15
The Malthouse Compromise involves 2 Plans.
Plan A: limit transition to Dec 2021 & then go to ‘A Better Deal’.
Plan B: have a quasi transition period & prepare for WTO rules kicking in on 1 Jan 2021.
The choice is clear for the EU, right?
Except…
2/15
…380gtk22pbxgw-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/upl…
…it’s not.
Because the #MalthouseCompromise really doesn’t meet the challenges that the Protocol in the Withdrawal Agreement tries to meet.

Let’s remember the purpose of the Protocol:

3/15
Read 15 tweets

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