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, 9 tweets, 3 min read
New: IOWA poll shows Warren with a slim lead, with Bernie (steady), Buttigieg (rising) and Biden (fading) knotted close behind her

A defining feature of the race is a generational divide in what Dem voters want in a nominee – tons of details here 👇
nytimes.com/2019/11/01/us/…
Voters' second choices can be crucial in Iowa

Warren is the 1st or 2nd choice of 47 percent of Dems there, while Bernie at 34, followed by Buttigieg at 31 and Biden at 28

Only 1 in 10 Iowa Dems names Biden as their second choice
nytimes.com/2019/11/01/us/…
In Iowa, Warren is the clear favorite candidate of women, voters under 30 and people with college or postgraduate degrees.

Sanders's support is also strong with young voters. He leads among men and outpolls Warren among people who did not attend college.
nytimes.com/2019/11/01/us/…
Buttigieg's support skews slightly older but is fairly even across age groups. Like Warren, he is stronger with more educated voters – he is in second place with people who have college/postgrad degrees.
nytimes.com/2019/11/01/us/…
Biden's support is basically entirely older voters.

Among people over 65, he is still the frontrunner.

He is supported by only 2 percent of voters under 45.

nytimes.com/2019/11/01/us/…
Among voters under 45, Biden is trailing Andrew Yang and tied with Tulsi Gabbard.
nytimes.com/2019/11/01/us/…
I can't stress enough the generational dynamics in this poll

Maybe my favorite Q: Would you prefer a nominee promising to bring DC "back to normal" or one promising to "fundamentally change" US?

85% of people under 30 pick fundamental change

70% of people over 65 pick normalcy
There is a wide separation between the top 4 candidates and everyone else in the poll

Next up is Klobuchar at 4, followed by Harris/Yang at 3 and Booker/Gabbard/Steyer at 2, Beto at 1 and Castro at 0

The good news for them is 2/3 of Iowa Dems say they may change their minds.
Sanders supporters are, by far, least likely to say they could change their minds: 55% say their mind is made up. That number is 34 for Biden, 26 for Warren and 25 for Buttigieg.

There's plenty to like in this poll if you are Warren, Sanders or Buttigieg. Not so much for Biden.
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More from @alexburnsNYT see all

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Alex Burns
@alexburnsNYT
New: @KamalaHarris tells me in an interview she doesn’t want to “restructure society”

So, what does she want?

My story, based on interviewing Harris, her colleagues & allies, & reviewing her public writings & policy plans👇

“What Kamala Harris Believes”
nytimes.com/2019/07/27/us/…
@KamalaHarris Harris defining herself as a candidate of urgent change, contrasting w/ rivals promising sweeping, comprehensive social reform

“Policy has to be relevant,” Ms. Harris said. “That’s my guiding principle: Is it relevant? Not, ‘Is it a beautiful sonnet?’”

nytimes.com/2019/07/27/us/…
@KamalaHarris That approach is deeply rooted in Harris’s legal and political career, according to her friends and colleagues.

Five told me in near-identical language: “She is not ideological.”

nytimes.com/2019/07/27/us/…
Read 7 tweets
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Alex Burns
@alexburnsNYT
NEW: How Joe Biden’s $200,000 speech helped rescue a powerful Republican in Michigan

A former VP, a lucrative speaking gig on GOP turf and a lawmaker who both championed funding for cancer research — and helped devise a bill gutting Obamacare

nytimes.com/2019/01/23/us/…
Biden worked w/Upton in 2016 on medical research funding. People involved in the event said Upton had no role in Biden's invitation.

But an Upton family foundation helps underwrite the speaker series & VP's contract specifies it would be an R-heavy crowd.
nytimes.com/2019/01/23/us/…
Local Dems were stunned by VP's remarks, as was Upton. Upton referenced them in a debate & they appeared in GOP advertising.

Dem county chair who attended speech pleaded w/Biden aide – w/o success – to get the VP to back Upton's challenger, @MattLongjohn. nytimes.com/2019/01/23/us/…
Read 7 tweets
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Alex Burns
@alexburnsNYT
Columnists often project their own interests and views onto voters. But this, from Andrew Sullivan, is so wildly detached from the lived reality of anyone involved in or reporting on, or in many cases voting in, the 2018 election.
You can argue that tribalism is a defining force - or the defining force - in American politics without making the kind of claim that suggests you’ve never talked to an undecided voter or visited a competitive congressional district or state.
(Re-reading it, the rhetorical choice to group health care — a life-or-death or bankruptcy-threatening issue for millions — with relatively abstract debates about “norms” and the executive branch is probably the most revealing part.)
Read 3 tweets

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CSM
@usacsmret
New Iowa Poll Shows the Radicals Taking Charge pjmedia.com/trending/new-i… #Trending via @pjmedia_com
@PJMedia_com A new Iowa poll shows Elizabeth Warren ahead of Bernie Sanders with the "electable" Joe Biden trailing in 4th place. Biden's fall from a double-digit lead to 4th codifies a national phenomenon:
@PJMedia_com The far left is flexing its electoral muscle and it's difficult to see how Biden or any other candidate can stop them.
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🇺🇸 Miguelifornia
@michaelbeatty3
THE AMY KLOBUCHAR
"DEPLORABLES" MOMENT
preaching her "One America"

@realDonaldTrump
#IOWA #WingDing
"DONALD TRUMP IS AFRAID"
-in her most sad, desperate speech ever, Amy Klobuchar begs for relevance in IOWA.
#WingDing
@realDonaldTrump
WEIRDO TOM STEYER defends the deep state & China like a good globalist. Dude is creepy AF

#WingDing #IOWA
@realDonaldTrump
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
#Biden slumps, #Buttigieg soars, tied with #Sanders and #Warren, #Harris next in benchmark #Iowa poll thehill.com/homenews/campa…
Critical point here is that the MSM is claiming that #Sanders "came within a handful of votes" of #HillaryClinton, when he lost in a landslide of 4M votes, 1k pledged delegates (not SDs) and a dozen states.
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This false narrative harms #Sanders--it's meant to highlight how badly he's doing in 2020 and prop up #Biden. But Sanders is actually doing better than in 2016. There are just more players. And Biden is being replaced by a younger centrist, #Buttigieg.
3/
Read 8 tweets
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Ivan Katchanovski
@I_Katchanovski
New KMIS #Poll : 51% of residents of #Ukraine support and 38% oppose giving autonomy for the separatist-controlled part of #donbas if this would be needed to end the war and resolve this #conflict peacefully. #Donbass kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=…
New KMIS #Poll : 54% of residents of Ukraine oppose blocking of #Russian TV channels in #Ukraine, while 32% support such political #Censorship. Similarly, 60% oppose ban on many performers and films from #Russia, while 28% support such political ban. kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=…
The KMIS poll shows that views of most Ukrainians on these issues are more liberal and democratic than views of most Ukrainian politicians and many intellectuals, who publicly claim to support democracy, freedom, and European values but in fact act in the opposite way.
Read 4 tweets
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Stonewall Jackson
@1776Stonewall
New ABC poll shows that 56% of Americans would not vote for Donald Trump in 2020. . . One little problem: that poll only sampled 23% Republicans. It's all phony, folks
The poll also neglects to mention that trumps approval rating is far higher than Nancy Pelosi or Chuck Schumer's, and that it is actually quite normal for presidents poll numbers to go down a bit during a shutdown
And the funny part is that even Gallup research says that about 35% of Americans are conservative, and 23% liberal. So not only do they over sample leftists by 10-20%, but it's even worse because it's completely backwards. There's a 30 points swing
Read 4 tweets
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Ryan James Girdusky
@RyanGirdusky
New YouGov Poll shows only 51% of Republicans believe we should maintain our commitment with NATO. Trump is turning the GOP away from the war party
Given the chance, 30% of Republicans believe we should withdraw from #NATO. Only a majority of Democrats think we should stay. #warparty
Also in the poll, ironically older people care more about abortion than younger people when it comes to the next #SCOTUS
Read 5 tweets

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