Thread by @mac_puck

1. Gove, Barclay, UK Gov, say goods will require proof they are from NI, not just passing through, when entering GB.

(Johnson says: "Nonsensh...'s all fine...no formsh...no checksh (hic) ...trusht (hic) me")

If BJ is wrong it is a lot of forms to fill, goods to check.

2. It is worth looking at that graph again. The grey line (Rest of World) represents exports that currently involve customs form filling.

Johnson's WA avoids form filling being required for the IE and rEU ...by imposing it on GB "exports".

3. And don't forget NO ONE is disputing the fact that goods going from GB to NI will require customs declarations, expensive 3rd party conformity certification and border checks, VAT in advance. (Not even Borish-hic-Johnshon)

4. So how much does all this cost: this paperwork, the checks and delays, adjustments to manufacturing processes and supply chains such that the product can be sold in the SM?

Let's have a look?

Ouch.

Does anyone know a business that can just shrug off a 15-20% buying hit ?

5. When the Gov did its estimates of impact of brexit in the different regions NI came out at -8% of GDP for FTA and -12% for no deal.

But this was based on a new border appearing between NI and its £10Bn EU trade; BJ has put it between NI and its £25Bn GB trade.

6. Rightly, identity and the GFA and peace have dominated discussions of NI and Brexit, but I believe this has led to everyone overlooking an oncoming economic crash there that will make the GFC look like the Lawson boom.

And the DUP made it happen.