Thread by @Melt_Dem

1/ ITS HERE! the @CoinSharesCo 2019 crypto trends report, all 134 pages

We hope that people will take these slides and the associated data and use them, improve upon them, and share them

find it here 👇 + a few favorites in the thread

coinsharesgroup.com/research/2019-…

@CoinSharesCo 2/ a thank you to @avichal @fundstrat @KaikoData @MessariCrypto @coinmetrics @CoinMarketCap @blockchain @blockchaincap @mrauchs from whom we drew inspiration, ideas, frameworks, and data.

and @marty_stenson for pulling more than a few all nighters w/ me! (eagles still suck tho)

@CoinSharesCo @avichal @fundstrat @KaikoData @MessariCrypto @coinmetrics @CoinMarketCap @blockchain @blockchaincap @mrauchs @marty_stenson 3/ from section 2: macro trends (p21)

boomers are retiring, with ~$70T set to be inherited over the next 20 years.

but, pensions are underfunded by 25%. who will pay?

@CoinSharesCo @avichal @fundstrat @KaikoData @MessariCrypto @coinmetrics @CoinMarketCap @blockchain @blockchaincap @mrauchs @marty_stenson 4/ from section 3: crypto trends (p38)

the last ten years of bitcoin have seen the transition from "consumer" to "institutional", with industry leaders going on to define new market segments

@CoinSharesCo @avichal @fundstrat @KaikoData @MessariCrypto @coinmetrics @CoinMarketCap @blockchain @blockchaincap @mrauchs @marty_stenson @BitMEXdotcom @coinbase @Ledger @ErisX_Digital @Anchorage @binance @Bakkt @TheRealBlockFi 5/ from section 3: crypto trends (p51)

while the stablecoin market nearly trebled over the last year, @Tether_to has maintained its 80% market share

why stablecoins? because they enable global cash settlement on-chain (see 4 am slide on clearing & settlement w/ cash v USDT)

@CoinSharesCo @avichal @fundstrat @KaikoData @MessariCrypto @coinmetrics @CoinMarketCap @blockchain @blockchaincap @mrauchs @marty_stenson @BitMEXdotcom @coinbase @Ledger @ErisX_Digital @Anchorage @binance @Bakkt @TheRealBlockFi @Tether_to @TrustToken @Gemini @circlepay @PaxosStandard @MakerDAO 6/ from section 4: signals (p64)

much of "crypto" still feels like pseudo-science due to a lack of data. (more here: meltdem.substack.com/p/crypto-is-mo…)

an initial review of data and sources highlights this challenge

@CoinSharesCo @avichal @fundstrat @KaikoData @MessariCrypto @coinmetrics @CoinMarketCap @blockchain @blockchaincap @mrauchs @marty_stenson @BitMEXdotcom @coinbase @Ledger @ErisX_Digital @Anchorage @binance @Bakkt @TheRealBlockFi @Tether_to @TrustToken @Gemini @circlepay @PaxosStandard @MakerDAO 7/ from section 5: where we are going (p77)

since the financial crisis, the US money supply has increased 4x while the effective interest rate has hit all time lows

@CoinSharesCo @avichal @fundstrat @KaikoData @MessariCrypto @coinmetrics @CoinMarketCap @blockchain @blockchaincap @mrauchs @marty_stenson @BitMEXdotcom @coinbase @Ledger @ErisX_Digital @Anchorage @binance @Bakkt @TheRealBlockFi @Tether_to @TrustToken @Gemini @circlepay @PaxosStandard @MakerDAO 8/ from section 5: where we are going (p81)

returns to equity capital (S&P500) have outpaced returns to labor (GDP) - largely fueled by low interest rates and expansion of the money supply

@CoinSharesCo @avichal @fundstrat @KaikoData @MessariCrypto @coinmetrics @CoinMarketCap @blockchain @blockchaincap @mrauchs @marty_stenson @BitMEXdotcom @coinbase @Ledger @ErisX_Digital @Anchorage @binance @Bakkt @TheRealBlockFi @Tether_to @TrustToken @Gemini @circlepay @PaxosStandard @MakerDAO 9/ from section 5: where are we going (p95)

social networks are the new payment networks, and they're going to be monster distribution channels. they'll partner with handset / hardware firms on building a strong native install base.

@CoinSharesCo @avichal @fundstrat @KaikoData @MessariCrypto @coinmetrics @CoinMarketCap @blockchain @blockchaincap @mrauchs @marty_stenson @BitMEXdotcom @coinbase @Ledger @ErisX_Digital @Anchorage @binance @Bakkt @TheRealBlockFi @Tether_to @TrustToken @Gemini @circlepay @PaxosStandard @MakerDAO 10/ from section 6: where we are looking (p98)

bitcoin is a secular trend. secular trends require conviction. if you bought amazon $AMZN in 99, you were underwater for SEVEN years.

cyclical trend (zoomed in) = ugly

secular trend (zoomed out) = beautiful

@CoinSharesCo @avichal @fundstrat @KaikoData @MessariCrypto @coinmetrics @CoinMarketCap @blockchain @blockchaincap @mrauchs @marty_stenson @BitMEXdotcom @coinbase @Ledger @ErisX_Digital @Anchorage @binance @Bakkt @TheRealBlockFi @Tether_to @TrustToken @Gemini @circlepay @PaxosStandard @MakerDAO 11/ from section 6: where we are looking (p108)

looking at the results of ICO financing, many crypto foundations are now operating as formal or informal investment funds

using a token to bootstrap open source protocol development seems inefficient...

@CoinSharesCo @avichal @fundstrat @KaikoData @MessariCrypto @coinmetrics @CoinMarketCap @blockchain @blockchaincap @mrauchs @marty_stenson @BitMEXdotcom @coinbase @Ledger @ErisX_Digital @Anchorage @binance @Bakkt @TheRealBlockFi @Tether_to @TrustToken @Gemini @circlepay @PaxosStandard @MakerDAO 12/ from section 6: where we are looking (p110)

let's talk business models and how companies make money. we see three primary business models that accrue equity value, and a handful of business models that could be cash cows but are not scalable.

@CoinSharesCo @avichal @fundstrat @KaikoData @MessariCrypto @coinmetrics @CoinMarketCap @blockchain @blockchaincap @mrauchs @marty_stenson @BitMEXdotcom @coinbase @Ledger @ErisX_Digital @Anchorage @binance @Bakkt @TheRealBlockFi @Tether_to @TrustToken @Gemini @circlepay @PaxosStandard @MakerDAO 13/ from section 6: where we are looking (p112)

if advertising drove internet business models, transactions drive crypto business models!

while eyeballs + clicks = revenue in internet land, volume + spread = revenue in crypto land.

@CoinSharesCo @avichal @fundstrat @KaikoData @MessariCrypto @coinmetrics @CoinMarketCap @blockchain @blockchaincap @mrauchs @marty_stenson @BitMEXdotcom @coinbase @Ledger @ErisX_Digital @Anchorage @binance @Bakkt @TheRealBlockFi @Tether_to @TrustToken @Gemini @circlepay @PaxosStandard @MakerDAO 14/ from section 6: where we are looking (p112)

the market is ripe for M&A activity - lots of spare cash on corporate balance sheets, and 2018 was a strong year for FinTech M&A w/ 2 deals > $10B

however, not many attractive M&A targets yet - need stable revenue + FCF

@CoinSharesCo @avichal @fundstrat @KaikoData @MessariCrypto @coinmetrics @CoinMarketCap @blockchain @blockchaincap @mrauchs @marty_stenson @BitMEXdotcom @coinbase @Ledger @ErisX_Digital @Anchorage @binance @Bakkt @TheRealBlockFi @Tether_to @TrustToken @Gemini @circlepay @PaxosStandard @MakerDAO 15/ from section 6: where we are looking (p130)

while the trend is towards centralized, surveillance / oversight driven platforms, the tools of the revolution are also proliferating

thanks to @torproject @getongab @SamouraiWallet @OPENDIME @signalapp (add your favorites pls!)

@CoinSharesCo @avichal @fundstrat @KaikoData @MessariCrypto @coinmetrics @CoinMarketCap @blockchain @blockchaincap @mrauchs @marty_stenson @BitMEXdotcom @coinbase @Ledger @ErisX_Digital @Anchorage @binance @Bakkt @TheRealBlockFi @Tether_to @TrustToken @Gemini @circlepay @PaxosStandard @MakerDAO @torproject @getongab @SamouraiWallet @OPENDIME @signalapp 16/ lastly - and this is my favorite

we are just getting started. so buckle up, my friends, and enjoy the ride! we're right there with you.

the the moon 🚀🌙 and beyond