@LukeGromen @CFA_Life @KYRRadio @imetatronink @SantiagoAuFund @VictorCleaner @mortymer001 @cjenscook @pkenary @TonyYin11897410 @Barton_options @MMTGoldbug @EVMacro @EstabidoG @GS_CapSF @spima18 @siddiqui71 @MarkGutman9 @JeffSnider_AIP @MacroVoices @RaoulGMI @GHBurnsCFA @MacroMorning @gamesblazer06 @DeepThroatIPO They understate the number, and overstate the reserves.
"China doesn’t include the debt of offshore entities when calculating foreign liabilities and this is in line with global standards, according to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.
"China doesn’t include the debt of offshore entities when calculating foreign liabilities and this is in line with global standards, according to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.
@LukeGromen @CFA_Life @KYRRadio @imetatronink @SantiagoAuFund @VictorCleaner @mortymer001 @cjenscook @pkenary @TonyYin11897410 @Barton_options @MMTGoldbug @EVMacro @EstabidoG @GS_CapSF @spima18 @siddiqui71 @MarkGutman9 @JeffSnider_AIP @MacroVoices @RaoulGMI @GHBurnsCFA @MacroMorning @gamesblazer06 @DeepThroatIPO According to Kevin Lai at Daiwa, the real number (including HK) is nearing 4T. Also, more than half matures in under a YEAR. Then there are the USD they have borrowed to fund 'official' loans (PBOC, CPP and SOE)-- to the developing world. Those loans are unreported
@LukeGromen @CFA_Life @KYRRadio @imetatronink @SantiagoAuFund @VictorCleaner @mortymer001 @cjenscook @pkenary @TonyYin11897410 @Barton_options @MMTGoldbug @EVMacro @EstabidoG @GS_CapSF @spima18 @siddiqui71 @MarkGutman9 @JeffSnider_AIP @MacroVoices @RaoulGMI @GHBurnsCFA @MacroMorning @gamesblazer06 @DeepThroatIPO (along with defaults by the way) because China is not in the Paris club.
@LukeGromen @CFA_Life @KYRRadio @imetatronink @SantiagoAuFund @VictorCleaner @mortymer001 @cjenscook @pkenary @TonyYin11897410 @Barton_options @MMTGoldbug @EVMacro @EstabidoG @GS_CapSF @spima18 @siddiqui71 @MarkGutman9 @JeffSnider_AIP @MacroVoices @RaoulGMI @GHBurnsCFA @MacroMorning @gamesblazer06 @DeepThroatIPO Then there is the (Kyle Bass described) practice of using HK banks to arrange USD swaps with the PBOC so they have USD on hand and dont need to liquidate USD. Supposedly 650B, leading to the dismissal of the CEO last summer
@LukeGromen @CFA_Life @KYRRadio @imetatronink @SantiagoAuFund @VictorCleaner @mortymer001 @cjenscook @pkenary @TonyYin11897410 @Barton_options @MMTGoldbug @EVMacro @EstabidoG @GS_CapSF @spima18 @siddiqui71 @MarkGutman9 @JeffSnider_AIP @MacroVoices @RaoulGMI @GHBurnsCFA @MacroMorning @gamesblazer06 @DeepThroatIPO Of HSBC, which was caught by the UK financial authority
@LukeGromen @CFA_Life @KYRRadio @imetatronink @SantiagoAuFund @VictorCleaner @mortymer001 @cjenscook @pkenary @TonyYin11897410 @Barton_options @MMTGoldbug @EVMacro @EstabidoG @GS_CapSF @spima18 @siddiqui71 @MarkGutman9 @JeffSnider_AIP @MacroVoices @RaoulGMI @GHBurnsCFA @MacroMorning @gamesblazer06 @DeepThroatIPO Also, dont forget how big China is. The IMF reserve adequacy test describes a MINIMUM liquid balance of 10% of Exports + 30% of Short-term FX Debt + 10% of M2 + 15% of Other Liabilities=2.7T.
@LukeGromen @CFA_Life @KYRRadio @imetatronink @SantiagoAuFund @VictorCleaner @mortymer001 @cjenscook @pkenary @TonyYin11897410 @Barton_options @MMTGoldbug @EVMacro @EstabidoG @GS_CapSF @spima18 @siddiqui71 @MarkGutman9 @JeffSnider_AIP @MacroVoices @RaoulGMI @GHBurnsCFA @MacroMorning @gamesblazer06 @DeepThroatIPO recap: Foreign debt is 2T that really 4T if you count offshore subs with parent g-tees. Doesn't count FX borrowing to fund foreign official USD lending. The reserves are 3.5T, (-) 650B coming due in forwards JUST TO ONE BANK, (-) the commitment to CIC,(-) 2.7T to pay the bills.
