Loan prime rate for China in 15 mins & median estimate is 4.18%, which is a mixed result of half people thinking 5bps cut & hold for 1yr of 4.2%
So far the MLF + reverse repo cut of 5bps all pt to the PBOC saying directionally rates going down but higher CPI ties hands
In Japan
So far the MLF + reverse repo cut of 5bps all pt to the PBOC saying directionally rates going down but higher CPI ties hands
In Japan
October trade figures are WORSE than expected w/ exports contracting further to -9.2%YoY & imports falling DOUBLE DIGITs to -1.48% showing demand weakening.
This mirrors Singapore & Korea contraction of trade. That is very bad news for the region b/c China is also not buying 🥶
This mirrors Singapore & Korea contraction of trade. That is very bad news for the region b/c China is also not buying 🥶
On top of this, cold water being poured on trade-deal hopism given the HK Bill, which is up to Pres Trump now, & so we are ending 2020 w/ a more dovish Fed (rate cuts of 75bps in 2019) & a slightly weaker USD but demand getting worse.
Houston, we got a demand problem in Asia!!!
Houston, we got a demand problem in Asia!!!
Forgot to say that PPI in South Korea got a bit better by falling only -0.6%YoY but September revised downward to -0.8%YoY. Seems like a bit of a turn here for Korea but stuck at a low range.
South Korea has the WORST performance of exports in North Asia despite similar profile
South Korea has the WORST performance of exports in North Asia despite similar profile
Note that South Korea declining export performance & Vietnam rising of exports actually have Korean firms' FDI so Korean firms are benefitting from Vietnam's rise of exports.
The losers are of course low-skilled Korean workers. Moon's higher wage policy accelerates offshoring👈🏻
The losers are of course low-skilled Korean workers. Moon's higher wage policy accelerates offshoring👈🏻
One thing to also consider South Korea's Moon policy of pro labor & anti large firms vs Taiwan's policy of reshoring & giving benefits for high-tech firms to set up shop in Taiwan.
This has led to higher investment in Taiwan & also higher growth rates while South Korea has less.
This has led to higher investment in Taiwan & also higher growth rates while South Korea has less.
Loan prime rate dropped by 5bps for the 1yr to 4.15% &also 5bps for the 5yr for China.
Important because the 5yr is where loans are bench-marked & signal easing direction even if the magnitude is small.
Hehlp is coming, says the PBOC, just be patient w/ us given higher CPI👈🏻
Important because the 5yr is where loans are bench-marked & signal easing direction even if the magnitude is small.
Hehlp is coming, says the PBOC, just be patient w/ us given higher CPI👈🏻
Should be -14.8% not -1.48% 🤦🏻♀️ Whoops!
SPX futures down. Asia red today & that is defo not an auspicious color for equities.
Trade-deal hopism evaporates w/ the unanimous decision by the Senate, which means...China MOFA reiterates threat to retaliate against US Bill on HK...
Here we go again. Fasten your seat belt!
Trade-deal hopism evaporates w/ the unanimous decision by the Senate, which means...China MOFA reiterates threat to retaliate against US Bill on HK...
Here we go again. Fasten your seat belt!
