Happy Monday! We're onto the latter half of November & u know what that means? 2020 is approaching. But we're heading there w/ more economic uncertainty than ever, with acceptance of China, Asia, & global slowdown. That means some respite via USD rates (lower) but no V-shape 😬 
Singapore reported its non-oil domestic exports this morning & the number is sobering (we knew that already though) as it fell -12.3%from -8.1
Demand is FALLING globally. See export by destinations👇🏻. Only Taiwan is growing in demand 🇹🇼. EM, China, India, developed, all down👇🏻
Demand is FALLING globally. See export by destinations👇🏻. Only Taiwan is growing in demand 🇹🇼. EM, China, India, developed, all down👇🏻
Let's look at by items of Singapore exports:
Electronics - falling double digits (although less than before)
Oil - contracting too by double digits
Non-oil not doing great either falling double digits
Houston, we got a global demand problem 🌏📉🥶👇🏻
Electronics - falling double digits (although less than before)
Oil - contracting too by double digits
Non-oil not doing great either falling double digits
Houston, we got a global demand problem 🌏📉🥶👇🏻
What this report shows is that while the electronic cycle is starting to turn (contraction lessening), exports are not bouncing back & still WORSE on other demand slowing.
Shows core demand decelerating in Asia as well as CPI flare in China & India due to food while core subdued
Shows core demand decelerating in Asia as well as CPI flare in China & India due to food while core subdued
China slashed the 7-day reverse repo by 5bps (following the MLF 5bps cut). The cut is very small and it shows the desire to help, which has resulted in rate cuts, but also the limitation of that support in the short-term by rising CPI due to protein shortages. Help needed but...
Thailand GDP follows the regional trend of weakness by growing only 2.4%YoY from 2.3% & that is lower than expectations of 2.7% for Q3
The BOT will need to continue to cut rates, although that will do little to Baht strength as rates already low at 1.25%
Where is the growth?🇹🇭
The BOT will need to continue to cut rates, although that will do little to Baht strength as rates already low at 1.25%
Where is the growth?🇹🇭
See my thread of Asian growth below & how I flagged that this is going to happen - the under performance of Thailand in the past several years & it having the problem of a rich economy is not good news as that means aging before you get rich.
🧓🏻👴🏻👵🏻🇹🇭
🧓🏻👴🏻👵🏻🇹🇭
Also this thread that looks at nominal export in Asia & how when we focus on growth, which tends to by cyclical, we forget the structural changes in Asia. Yes, Thailand needs to invest more & do more to be competitive. And sadly, it's not alone in Asia👈🏻
