Morales’s actions are irrelevant to the coup d’état question. In a constitutional democracy the armed forces have no role in the transfer of civilian power. “Asking” or “suggesting” that a civilian president resign is either unconstitutional, undemocratic, or both. 1/x
2 The armed forces’ role (where internal affairs are part of its mandate) is to preserve infrastructure and essential services and protect the citizenry. A military commander who can’t do this should ask for reinforcements and if refused, or if still unable, resign. 2/x
3 The courts are supposed to rule on disputes concerning elections and other aspects of political succession. In a constitutional democracy, rules regarding the selection of judges are written and public. There are mechanisms for challenging in the case of improprieties. 3/x
4 Claims that judges have partisan loyalties are not unusual, especially in presidential systems. The USA is an excellent example. A candidate less compliant than Al Gore might have continued resistance following the SCOTUS decision to suspend recounts in 2000. 4/x
5 There doesn’t appear to be any suggestion that constitutional provisions were breached in Bolivian presidential elections up to the point where the counting of ballots was suspended in the most recent one. It appears the purpose of this was to intervene in Morales’s favour. 5/x
6 The tradition of allowing OAS delegations to observe and report on elections is well established in Latin America. These reports are generally considered credible. An OAS report, confirmed that there was no benign explanation for the suspension of counting. 6/x
7 After the OAS report landed Morales signalled his willingness to run again in a new election. Up to this point civilian control over the political process was maintained. This was an achievement as, earlier in Morales’s tenure, separatism gathered strength in the southeast. 7/x
8 The armed forces’ intervention marked the end of civilian control over the process. When a ranking military commander tells a sitting civilian president it’s time to resign, the president is not being allowed to choose willingly. Morales stepped down under pressure. 8/x
9 Intervention of this nature by the armed forces justifies the use of coup d’état to describe this episode. It doesn’t matter what Morales did as president. It doesn’t matter with whom the armed forces may have been acting in concert. Theirs was the decisive act. 9/x
10 What turns on whether it was a coup or not? Not much, in my view. Governments that refuse to recognize the post-Morales regine will likely use other words such as illegitimate or interruption of democratic process. But there are important questions to consider. 10/x
11 No one can deny the importance of Morales’s presidency. Raising awareness of indigeneity and giving power to Indigenous people is only part of the story. It’s also a mixed legacy, as Morales was not universally popular among Indigenous Bolivians. 11/x
12 Morales showed that it’s possible for a developing nation to insist on ownership of its natural resources and fair contracts with foreign corporations, in a spirit of partnership. He showed that benefits of resource extraction could be used to allow Bolivians to flourish. 12/x
13 Morales and Brazil’s Lula led the most successful of Latin America’s “pink tide” transformations. The constitutional and mining-law structures put in place during Morales’s tenure will be hard to overturn. Oppression and racial subjugation suffered major setbacks. 13/x
14 But no political achievement is complete until it is made secure by institutions and organization, not by an individual and a few followers. In today’s world this means strong government institutions, a genuine political party with a social base, and emerging leadership. 14/x
15 Succession has special resonance in Latin America. In both colonial and post-colonial times, weak government fostered the rise of the caudillo, the regional chieftain who dispensed favours, exacted tribute and amassed formidable power, forcing others to seek his support. 15/x
16 After most Latin American countries won independence from Spain, caudillismo and civilian rule existed uneasily. Often the mixture became toxic, and the result was dictatorship, sometimes lasting for decades. That experience lies behind the insistence on term limits. 16/x
17 The caudillo syndrome lurks on the margins of all presidential systems. Presidents intoxicated with victory after winning millions upon millions of votes confuse politics with campaigning. They forget they must deal with legislatures whose members also won tough contests. 17/x
18 These leaders come to slight politics in all its forms - dealing with other institutions, building parties of the masses, ensuring the upward flow of data and ideas, nurturing younger leaders who are committed to building support for not only the cause but the process. 18/x
19 It’s hard to say from a distance how much Evo Morales conforms to this archetype. But he does seem to have persuaded himself that his own leadership was essential to his political project. It seemed significant that his vice-president refused to step up in his place. 19/x
20 Morales possessed keen political instincts. It may seem strange that they failed him this year. Or it may suggest that caudillismo - the word derives from the Latin for “head” - has a long tail whose whip will constrain democracy in Latin America for some time to come. 20/20
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