Thread by @politico

Which party will control the W.H. in 2020? Trump can afford to lose 36 electoral votes from his 2016 victory and still win reelection. But he’s been hobbled by low job-approval ratings and shown little ability to expand his appeal. politi.co/2OufifR

There are 6 particular states we’re watching closely in the 2020 presidential race: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Nebraska, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Here’s why.
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1️⃣ Pennsylvania: Republicans finally flipped it in 2016. Dems feel confident they can snatch it back in 2020. But the party's choice of its presidential nominee (and his or her policy positions) will make the difference here.
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2️⃣ Wisconsin’s a presidential toss-up: Trump was the first Republican to win the state since 1984, and all indications point to another close race in 2020. politi.co/2OufifR

3️⃣ Arizona will be a full-fledged electoral battleground in 2020, even though Republicans have carried the state in five straight presidential races.
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4️⃣ Trump flipped Michigan in 2016, but just barely. And Democrats surged back in the 2018 midterms with decisive victories. Trump will have to win back some of those voters Republicans lost in order to repeat his 2016 win.
politi.co/2OufifR

5️⃣ In Nebraska, Dems called the 2nd District “Obamaha,” after Obama’s victory there in 2008. Romney took it back in 2012, and Trump won it in 2016 by only a little more than 2 points. We’re calling this one a toss-up.
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6️⃣ Florida is the toss-up to end all toss-ups. Republicans are on something of a statewide winning streak over the past few years, but it's hard to see a scenario in which any 2020 presidential candidate wins Florida by a sizable margin.
politi.co/2OufifR