Thread by @DrGJackBrown

1/ THREAD: The following Thought Experiment/Logic Tree regarding a profound National Security Risk first occurred to me about eighteen months ago.

#ThreatAssesment #DonaldTrump #NationalSecurity #BodyLanguage #RiskAnalysis #BehaviorAnalysis

2/ At that time, I thought it was possible, although unlikely. However, events have unfolded which, from a Risk Analysis perspective, have shifted it to a probable/highly probable future.

3/ To be clear, I’m not an attorney nor do I have any expertise in constitutional law, international law, or military law. I am an expert in behavioral analysis and predicting behavior — and this permutation is an exercise in predicting Donald Trump’s behavior.

4/ I’m also a physician and a body language expert. I’ve analyzed Donald Trump in detail several thousand times — approximately 500 of these are published.

5/ Question:

What will happen to Donald Trump when he leaves office? The answer to this question is contingent on HOW he leaves office. One of the following six possible scenarios WILL OCCUR in the next 14 months:

6/ A.  The President will be impeached by the House but not convicted or removed by the Senate — and he goes on to be reelected in 2020.

7/ In this first scenario, the President’s reelection delays some of his indictments for alleged crimes for up to four additional years. The statutes of limitations may expire for some of these allegations during his second term. Of course, new allegations may arise (see below).

8/ B. The President can somehow negotiate a resignation contingent on full pardons for all of his alleged federal crimes by the next president (Pence or other).

9/ However, because a presidential pardon only applies to federal violations and he would, therefore, remain legally exposed for any allegations brought by state prosecutors, this particular scenario is extremely unlikely.

10/ C.  The President could develop (or feign) a medical condition/conditions that would prevent him from continuing his duties as president, and, as per the 25th amendment, require the Vice President to assume the Presidency.

11/ D.  The President could resign from office, be indicted for most or all of his alleged crimes, and fight these numerous allegations in court.

12/ E.  The President could be impeached by the house and convicted/removed by the Senate (see below). In this fifth scenario, the President will then be indicted for most/all of his alleged crimes as soon as he leaves office.

13/ F.  The President could be impeached by the house, but not convicted and removed by the Senate. He then goes on to lose his reelection bid in 2020 (see below). In this sixth scenario, the President will be indicted for most/all of his alleged crimes.

14/ Discussion:

What is clear, is that once the president leaves office he will be indicted for multiple felonies. For these numerous alleged crimes, the President will realistically spend the rest of his life either fighting these allegations in court, incarcerated, or both.

15/ Thus the question arises, in anticipation of these indictments, what will the President do to prevent his protracted court battles and particularly his probable incarceration?

16/ After years of extensive behavioral profiling, as well as considering the President’s well-published history of five draft deferments during the Vietnam War (four for college, one for bone spurs), ...

17/ ...in addition to his history of settling lawsuits rather than fighting them in court, along with his documented history of agreements/disagreements, actions/inactions, negotiations/feigned negotiations, ...

18/ ...along with details of his relationships with multiple foreign leaders (particularly Vladimir Putin) — with extremely high likelihood, the following scenario WILL occur:

19/ If either: 

A. Trump is Impeached and he then anticipates his conviction by the Senate,

or …

20/ B. The President is not convicted by the Senate but loses the 2020 election, during the 78 days between Election Day 2020 and Inauguration Day 2021 (This lame duck scenario would also apply at the end of his second term, should be re-elected)…

21/ … Donald Trump will then arrange for an impromptu trip to another country — highly likely a country in eastern Europe. Three or four hundred miles before the scheduled landing, the president will give an order for a diversion from the previously-planned course.

22/ The new destination will most likely be Russia and more specifically Moscow. Other non-European possibilities include Turkey or Saudi Arabia — although these countries are much less likely.

23/ Since he will be Commander-in-Chief, it would certainly seem that the pilot and crew, as well as any accompanying US military aircraft pilots, would have to comply with his orders (impromptu field orders).

24/ Russian military aircraft will, of course, be waiting to escort Air Force One.

25/ A variation on this theme would be, that Air Force One will land at his previously publicized destination (i.e., Helsinki, Tallinn, Riga, or Minsk), and complete the last 150-200 kilometers to the Russian border via motorcade.

26/ Traveling by land, he would be accompanied by a much smaller and more “user-friendly” staff (i.e., no Air Force pilot who is put in a sudden dilemma and no accompanying US fighter aircraft support, etc.).

27/ Regardless of your feelings toward the President, or his guilt or innocence of his alleged crimes, in this last-minute-trip-scenario, ...

28/ ...the President cannot venture, via air or land, into any potentially aggressive country in this scenario, particularly Russia (or any country without a well-recognized and routinely enforced extradition treaty).

29/ Moreover, regardless of any secrets President Trump may have already shared with foreign leaders, particularly Vladimir Putin, there can be no doubt that Donald Trump has considerable top-secret knowledge, ...

30/ ...which, if extracted by foreign intelligence, would pose many monumental national security threats to the United States and to the rest of the world.

31/ Some will think this scenario to be far-fetched. It is not. It is extremely probable. What would most people do if they suddenly found themselves in Donald Trump’s shoes?

32/ Trump does not want to spend the rest of his life in court. Would you? He does not want to go to prison. Would you?

33/ His personal history, his behavior patterns, and his personality all indicate the scenario described here is the course of action which will be taken by President Trump.

34/ Senior government officials must be prepared for this extremely probable event. The President’s cabinet, in particular, must be prepared (months in advance) for such a scenario.

35/ If the Senate conviction/removal scenario applies — then this Senate vote must be taken before the President departs. Donald Trump must not fall into Russian hands. This is a highly probable and profound national security threat that must not be allowed to occur.

END