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From the story I think Ivan Rogers is being too optimistic here. The EU will ask for more even than he says just for a tariff free deal.

Could be the first time in living memory that anyone has accused him of being an optimist. Will await the transcript...
Here's the nub of the Ivan Rogers argument - Johnson is simply repeating earlier errors and would have to accept anything the EU offered in December 2020
Rogers says the EU should pause before negotiating. I agree - it is normal for trade partners to look at the big picture before talks. But will Johnson allow? Quite possibly not.
I was wrong earlier - Rogers agrees with me that the EU will ask for wider rule alignment in return for just zero tariffs. That simple trade deal really doesn't exist...
Here's the full unexpurgated text of doom for the gloom-mongers among you who want to know how bad is our predicament in future EU negotiations... policyscotland.gla.ac.uk/ghost-of-chris…
As before, Johnson is the candidate of #GetBrexitDone badly. It is quite something that business are coming to hope he doesn't mean what he says as their best hope. /end
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Boris Johnson has made three promises on a US trade deal - to sign a good deal by 2022, to take the NHS off the table, and not to adopt US food standards. The realities of US trade deals means keeping all three is extremely unlikely. So which promise will be broken?
Interesting to note that the Conservative Party response to the leak of documents has been to double down the denials even in the face of evidence. No suggestion whatsoever of negotiating realities or transparency. This should be a serious concern.
Ask the DUP if Boris Johnson can be trusted to keep his promises in an international negotiation.

(and here's the thing, the bluster and denial stops serious discussion. might work for a while. won't work for long)
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
I picked the wrong morning for meetings but my quick reaction is as before - of course the NHS could be included in trade deals and the Conservatives response on this (as on food standards) has been unconvincing.
We need a commitment to transparency and scrutiny of trade deals. We don't yet have any such thing, and until we do, suspicion of trade deals will continue. No 'off the table' type language works without a commitment to scrutiny.
Even from these quick peeks it looks like the Government may well have lied about UK US trade talks. This is a big deal, or at least should be.
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
I've joined a group of UK trade specialists in calling for future UK trade negotiations including with the EU to prioritise content over timing; hold transparent consultations with the public; and establish an independent arbiter, equivalent to the OBR telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/…
We conclude "If the UK wants to benefit from high quality trade deals and lead on the global stage, a major shift in approach is required. It’s time to get serious."

I can't speak for the others but I'm not optimistic that this will happen in the short-term
Here's the full text of the letter from UK trade specialists this morning. Also signed by a couple of folk not on twitter, notably Professor Alan Winters from @uk_tpo
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Jason Segedy 🇺🇸 🇭🇺🇮🇹
@JasonSzegedi
1) A thread and new blog post about the Great Disconnect, in terms of urban needs, between the nation's elite, mainly coastal, cities; and many of the cities located within its vast interior.

thestile1972.tumblr.com/post/189234807…
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John Hayward
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Some of Trump's rhetoric is certainly way over the top, but comparisons to Clinton's "deplorables" comment are missing the important distinction that Trump isn't dismissing half the American electorate as subhuman. He's very nasty to specific political actors.
Trump's saltiest rhetoric is directed at specific people who are politicians, tiny groups like the NeverTrumpers who are assertive political actors, and of course The Media, which thinks of ITSELF as a branch of government.
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Swiss Ramble
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As Arsenal fans nervously await the outcome of this summer’s transfer window, I thought it might be interesting to look at why the club is facing more financial challenges these days. Some thoughts in the following thread #afcb
On the face of it, #AFC are doing fine, having reported profits for 16 consecutive years, adding up to a grand total of £393m, averaging £25m a year. Furthermore, Arsenal’s profits in the last two years were a healthy £70m in 2017/18 and £45m in 2016/17.
In fact, #AFC £70m profit before tax in 2017/18 (the most recent published accounts) was actually the fifth highest ever registered in the Premier League, though it is worth noting that this was comfortably surpassed by two rivals that season: #THFC £139m and #LFC £125m.
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Luke Savage
@LukewSavage
.@BernieSanders is currently delivering a speech on democratic socialism at George Washington university. It cam be watched live here.
So far Sanders has emphasized the polarization of American politics - with oligarchy on the one side and various movements for democracy on the other
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Holger Hestermeyer
@hhesterm
The effect a meaningful vote (if granted consistently for international agreements) has on procedure: a structure of parliamentary involvement evolves. Let me explain (thread)
In the UK Parliament does NOT get a vote on international agreements. Under CRaG, Parliament can delay, the House of Commons repeatedly so, they get a vote on implementation, but they cannot reject an agreement. I’ve explained that in more detail in a blogpost with @ConUnit_UCL
@ConUnit_UCL This is different in most systems with a written constitution. France, Italy, Portugal, Germany, in all of them Parliament gets a vote on some agreements. The EU is interesting, because here Parliament originally didn’t get a vote, but then started to have one. The effect?
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Millennial Macro
@MillennialMacro
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
#USA
- Best demographics
- Largest military
- Largest economy
- Most used currency
- Liquid financial markets
- Open capital account
- Rule of law
- Best geography
- Can be self sufficient if required
- Not trade dependent
#USA
Top trade partners as of 30 June 2018:
- China: 15.2% (strategic competitor)
- Canada: 15.1%
- Mexico: 14.6%
- Japan: 5.1%
- Germany: 4.4%

The next 10 years could result in the below:
- Mexico (25%)
- Canada (20%
- Japan (7%)
- South Korea (5%)
- Great Britain (4%)
#USA
Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz…
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irishtimes.com/business/econo…
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