FWIW, I've been working on how to model the impact of money and endorsements on the primary—historically, endorsements are more predictive of polling movement but raising money doesn't hurt—and most of candidates are about where they "should" be in polls given those inputs.
Here's where the model thinks the candidates "should" be in national polls given their fundraising and endorsements:
Biden: 25%
Warren: 13%
Sanders: 11%
Buttigieg: 9%
Klobuchar: 5%
Castro: 5%
Booker: 4%
Yang: 4%
Bloomberg: 4%
Bennet: 4%
Not too far from where they actually are.
Biden: 25%
Warren: 13%
Sanders: 11%
Buttigieg: 9%
Klobuchar: 5%
Castro: 5%
Booker: 4%
Yang: 4%
Bloomberg: 4%
Bennet: 4%
Not too far from where they actually are.
Handling the endorsement data is tricky—you need to weight recent endorsements more heavily but also account for how many people are sitting on the sidelines. Anyway, a bit too esoteric for Twitter, but the point is that there isn't a huge gap between polls and "fundamentals".
