Thread by @Brad_Setser

Interesting @petersgoodman look at the political impact of the China shock on left-wing industrial strong holds in Italy.

h/t @toddntucker

nytimes.com/2019/12/05/bus…

@petersgoodman @toddntucker Stefano Federico has a paper documenting the impact of the China shock on manufacturing intensive part of Italy -- Italy's greater exposure to the first stage of the China shock than say Germany is part of the reason for Italy's stagnation.

ideas.repec.org/a/bla/obuest/v…

@petersgoodman @toddntucker Germany though would be highly exposed to a China shock in autos -- or certain kinds of high-end machinery. And Italy's experience suggests an older labor force in particular has trouble adjusting.

@petersgoodman @toddntucker And there is evidence that the China shock had an impact on parts of France as well, though the impact was tempered by the fact that France's economy is less manufacturing driven than Italy's (and aircraft haven't been hit by a China shock, yet)

publications.banque-france.fr/en/impact-chin…