The idea that China is heading toward a current account deficit is increasingly becoming a zombie idea. It persists no matter what is actually in the data.
China's goods surplus in 19 will be around $430b, up ~ $80b from 18 ...
China's goods surplus in 19 will be around $430b, up ~ $80b from 18 ...
The goods surplus of course isn't the same as the current account balance. But the CA generally moves with the goods balance (except when China revised the services trade data). And with the November trade numbers, we more or less know the 19 goods surplus. 
The rise in the goods surplus stopped in November (more or less flat imports and exports y/y). But in dollar terms it has stabilized a level well above its 17-18 levels (let alone its 10-13 levels).
China's current account surplus is back around $200b even with the obviously mismeasured (after 14) tourism balance (see the Fed on this). China will end the year with a surplus or around 1.5% of GDP --
That is not the $400b/ 10% of GDP surplus of the pre-global crisis era --
But it isn't a deficit either ...
& there is no reason to expect a big turn in 2020.
But it isn't a deficit either ...
& there is no reason to expect a big turn in 2020.
