NEW: our full story is now out analysing what drove the Tories’ victory ft.com/content/bc09b7…
Chart thread:
1/ The size of the Tory majority was a shock. The Tories swept up 58 seats in England & Wales, of which 54 came from Labour. The "red wall" proved very fragile.
Chart thread:
1/ The size of the Tory majority was a shock. The Tories swept up 58 seats in England & Wales, of which 54 came from Labour. The "red wall" proved very fragile.
2/ As a result, Labour were left with just 202 seats, their lowest total since 1935.
3/ Why did it happen? Multiple factors and it’ll take time to fully tease them apart, but this appears to have been a case of working class turning their backs on Labour.
• This is a continuation of a trend, not a new thing
• Brexit played a part
• But so did dislike of Corbyn
• This is a continuation of a trend, not a new thing
• Brexit played a part
• But so did dislike of Corbyn
4/ Turnout also played a role. The Tories fared better where turnout dropped the most, and Labour fared better were turnout rose. This was significant after adjusting for other factors.
Suggests Lab supporters stayed home in key places, lowering the bar for Tory victory.
Suggests Lab supporters stayed home in key places, lowering the bar for Tory victory.
5/ Sticking with turnout, we also have fairly good evidence that there was a tactical Remain vote.
Turnout was down overall, but it held up much better in Tory-held Remain seats than elsewhere.
Suggests tactical Remainers showed up in force to try to unseat Tories.
Turnout was down overall, but it held up much better in Tory-held Remain seats than elsewhere.
Suggests tactical Remainers showed up in force to try to unseat Tories.
6/ But evidence suggests mixed results, and in some cases it backfired.
• St Albans a rare success: Lab supporters switched to better-placed LDs and won them the seat
• Kensington not so much: voters switched from Lab to LD, costing Lab the seat and still leaving LDs well short
• St Albans a rare success: Lab supporters switched to better-placed LDs and won them the seat
• Kensington not so much: voters switched from Lab to LD, costing Lab the seat and still leaving LDs well short
7/ Brexit party appears to have hurt Labour slightly more than Tories.
• In seats where Brexit party stood, net Lab -> Con swing was 10.3 points
• In seats where Brexit party didn’t stand, it was 9.8 points
• Clear in seats like Don Valley that most of BXP vote came from Lab
• In seats where Brexit party stood, net Lab -> Con swing was 10.3 points
• In seats where Brexit party didn’t stand, it was 9.8 points
• Clear in seats like Don Valley that most of BXP vote came from Lab
8/ As I say, it’s early days and individual-level data will shed more more light, but:
• This was about more than just Brexit
• Tactical voting was, as expected, a total mess
• This was about more than just Brexit
• Tactical voting was, as expected, a total mess
9/9 Here ends the 15 hour shift.
Brilliant stuff from fellow night-owls @BillyEhrenberg and @OliEllTay ft.com/content/bc09b7…
Brilliant stuff from fellow night-owls @BillyEhrenberg and @OliEllTay ft.com/content/bc09b7…
