Thread by @jburnmurdoch

NEW:

Another #GE2019 Strategy Scatter™️, this time for Lib Dems’ fight against the Tories ft.com/content/9ef281…

1) First up, here’s the Lib Dem margin in all Tory-held seats at GE2017, and the estimated vote for Remain
• Further left = safer Tory
• Higher up = more Remain

2) Here’s the same thing adjusted for current polling:
• In every seat, margin is now GE2017 + each party’s swing in that region since then, e.g in the south east the LDs are up 12pts, Cons are down 13pts

This would put a handful of current Con seats into likely LD territory.

3) How many possible Lib Dem gains from Con are we talking? 13.

All in the south where the party has a solid base (other possible gains from Lab further north not shown here)

By this method, tightest would be Eastleigh, whereas Cheltenham and Richmond Park could go more easily

4) But the Lib Dems will have other targets from the Cons, too:
• For example very Remainy London seats like Putney & Wimbledon
• And Westminster itself, where Chuka Umunna is standing in the seat vacated by Mark Field

5) Then there are less-Remainy but potentially close contests in other southern seats like Guildford, where MP Anne Milton resigned from Cons.

So that initial figure of 13 here = rough estimate. Could be couple fewer, or couple more. Depends on further poll moves in coming weeks

6) And how could yesterday’s Brexit party news affect things?

With no BXP in these Con-held seats, Tories will win back some voters.

How many? Roughly 40% of BXP backers.

That shrinks LDs’ winnable territory, but only by a fairly small margin, maybe costing them a seat or two.

7) We’ll have more on the Lib Dems in the coming weeks, including their scraps against other parties.

In the mean time, read this excellent story on Lib Dems vs Cons by @pilitaclark, who went to hear the story on the ground in Cheltenham ft.com/content/9ef281…