In it, @ProfJaneGreen discusses the shifting tectonics, aided by charts showing the changing electoral landscape.
It’s chart thread time:
• Economic axis from Left (pro redistribution) to Right (anti redist, pro business)
• Cultural axis from top (authoritarian, tough on crime, traditional British values) to bottom (liberal, individual freedoms)
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJqbfLPW4AMIQGk.png)
Remainers skew very liberal, Leavers authoritarian.
NB those Leavers in the upper-left: socially conservative, economically left-wing
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJqbpbcXkAATq1G.png)
A fair amount more cultural (vertical) overlap, but current Labour supporters skew to the economic left, Conservatives to the right.
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJqbu_qX0AAFyf5.png)
LDs occupy a similar space to Labour on cultural axis, but are less left-wing on the economy.
Brexit party backers have plenty of overlap with Tories and some with Labour, but also stretch into that Auth-Left space where we saw Leave.
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJqb1BXWoAAMmkU.png)
The Leave cluster is almost a perfect match for Brexit party, and Remain are almost a clone of the Lib Dems.
i.e the Brexit identities map neatly onto the two smaller parties, but are misaligned with Lab and Con.
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJqb65eW4AEAHki.jpg)
For all the talk of there being a gap for a new centrist party, non-voters fit neatly into the exact same space occupied by Leave voters and Brexit party supporters: the Authoritarian Left.
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJqcA59WsAIljaE.jpg)
Here’s Leave:
Much bigger overlap between Cons and both BXP-supporters and non-voters than there is for Lab.
Tories want to get as many of these people (BXP + non-voting) as poss to see them as the authoritarian choice.
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJqcNj6W4AAOnoq.jpg)
With cultural divides growing in salience, they feel more at home with Cons on culture than Lab on economics.
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJqclIiWsAIiqlG.jpg)
Where will they go?
We’ll find out between now and the morning of December 13th!
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJqcxi-XUAASRv3.jpg)
If The Independent Group were aiming to be a centrist party, they certainly achieved that.
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJqdC2AWwAENTSz.png)