@ClimateBen 1) The big unknown danger is ecological. Whilst we are aware that there will be serious ecological impacts, we only have a vague idea what these will be. This is due to the massive complexity of causal chains in ecological relationships which makes them impossible to model.
@ClimateBen 2) Let me briefly explain. We already know the danger of alien species being introduced into geographical regions they were previously absent from, and which these biogeographical ecosystems were not adapted to.
@ClimateBen 3) Most of these alien species introductions have not yet been due to climate change, but inadvertent introductions by humans. However, climate is probably the biggest determinate of species distribution, and even on a small island like Britain, this is apparent.
@ClimateBen 4) Climate change will cause a massive re-arrangement in the distribution of species i.e. biodiversity, and all ecosystems are composed of myriad species, and their interrelationships.
@ClimateBen 5) Species will be lost from biogeographical areas because of climate change, and new species will enter these biogeographical regions. Many of these species will be disease causing pathogens, crop pests and likewise, plus other species which effect the dynamics of these.
@ClimateBen 6) The dynamics of these are what matters as ecosystem function is all about dynamics. It is this which makes it all but impossible to model, and we often only see the effects with hindsight.
@ClimateBen 7) We can be quite certain that when species enter new biogeographical regions that they generally have adverse impacts from a human point of view, or are neutral at best. Rarely ever, are they beneficial, without adverse impacts.
@ClimateBen 8) We can be certain of this because of all the deliberate and inadvertent introductions of alien species by humans, often because it was mistakenly thought this species would be beneficial, and they had all sorts of unforeseen side effects.
@ClimateBen 9) Yet as climate change progresses, we are going to see far more of these movements of species either moving into or lost from biogeographical regions. Also inadvertent human introductions will be magnified as it becomes possible for species to survive in new areas.
@ClimateBen 10) The impacts will be huge, hitting our crop production, food supply, economy and health. Remember this is on top of the direct impacts of climate change such as extreme weather, heat, floods, and rising sea levels.
@ClimateBen 11) Ecology is all about the relationships of things. Therefore biodiversity loss, different forms of pollutions, the impacts of pesticides, whilst not necessarily being driven by climate change, will all combine and these effects experienced as a whole.
@ClimateBen 12) In reality, this means these impacts on food supply systems, health etc, will impact our social structures, our economy, and therefore our political systems and their stability. All this is essentially ecological, as ecology is not limited by how we delineate it.
@ClimateBen 13) As I imply, the vast majority of these impacts are totally absent from scientific evaluations, IPCC reports etc, because they are far too complex to model. However, we can be quite certain from general ecological principles, experience that they will happen.
@ClimateBen 14) One of the huge dangers of climate change is that politicians, economists etc, quite wrongly think we can forecast the effects, plan for them, and to adapt. These ecological wildcards prove that planning and adaptation, is a fools errand, because we won't foresee most.
@ClimateBen 15) Most planning and adaptations envisaged by governments involve more predictable and simple physical parameters like heat, drought, sea level wise, extreme weather events. The effects I allude to will totally disrupt these plans and catch us unaware.
@ClimateBen 17) As climate change progresses these effects will become much greater over time. Focusing on a few easy to model physical parameters has lulled us into a false sense of security, and has given ecologically ignorant politicians and economists the false impression we can adapt.
@ClimateBen 16) This is why it is much better to focus on avoiding as much climate change as possible, by ceasing the burning of fossil fuels, rather than focusing on adaptation, which is unlikely to succeed as we don't really know what we are adapting to.
