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538 Iowa polling average with the YouGov poll included:

Biden 22.0 (+2.5)
Sanders 20.6 (+2.5)
Buttigieg 19.4 (+0.4)
Warren 13.3 (-0.2)
Klobuchar 7.0 (+0.6)

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
Note that YouGov generally has mediocre numbers for Biden & stronger numbers for Warren & Buttigieg relative to other pollsters, so that affects how our average interprets this poll. Basically, it sees it as good news for both Bernie and Biden relative to the others.
NH polling average with YouGov:
Sanders 21.3 (+3.3)
Biden 21.1 (+2.9)
Warren 14.4 (+0.5)
Buttigieg 13.7 (-1.1)
Klobuchar 4.9 (+0.9)

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Two weeks before Iowa and I'd say it's entirely unclear which candidate, if any, is on an upward trajectory (a.k.a. has "momentum") there. 53eig.ht/2TJwWQS
* Biden's had a couple of nice polls recently along with some not-so-good ones. But it's not clear that he's *moving up* so much as that his position has been a little stronger than acknowledged all along.

* Sanders had seemed to be rising, but his post-debate polls have been😬.
* Warren does appear to have rebounded off her lows from a month or so ago. Still, most polls show her in 3rd/4th place.

* Buttigieg has been moving *down*, though he's still in the running.

* Klobuchar's numbers probably are moving up, but quite possibly too little, too late.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
We're halfway thru the NBA season, so as promised, a quarterly check-in of how our new NBA metric (RAPTOR) is performing vs. Vegas.

It's good news for RAPTOR, which remains on pace to have more accurate team win projections than Vegas. We're pretty excited about this. 🦖🦖🦖
The Lakers, which RAPTOR has come around on but we were bearish on in the preseason, remain our big Achilles' heel. Still, as you can see above—which sorts teams by how much our projections differed from Vegas—RAPTOR is winning most of its big "bets" (OKC, SAS, NYK, MEM, etc.)
RAPTOR also seems to be doing well vs. the other statistical systems we're tracking; however, I'd note that PIPM from @JacobEGoldstein is also having a really good year. bball-index.com/current-pipm/
Read 4 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
In our poll, Warren's numbers on electability improved last night. Guess who else's improved the most? Klobuchar. So getting that discussion out in the open may well have been helpful to her vs. voters holding an implicit bias against women candidates.
Also, there is extremely compelling evidence that people close to Warren planted the story. The initial CNN story cited "people Warren spoke with directly soon after the encounter". The people reporting the story were Warren reporters. Warren confirmed the story herself!
The thing about Warren is that both her supporters and her detractors underestimate her raw *political* acumen. Her detractors because they see her as political, but don't think highly of her acumen. Her supporters because they don't think of her as political.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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mathieu gallard
@mathieugallard
🇺🇸🗳️ Dans pile un mois, c’est le début d'une longue et palpitante saison électorale aux #EtatsUnis avec le caucus de l’#Iowa lors duquel 14 candidats vont concourir à l'investiture du parti démocrate. #primaires
🇺🇸🗳️ Au niveau national, peu d'évolutions en un an de campagne :

➡️#Biden reste en tête

➡️Les candidats de l’aile gauche #Sanders et #Warren le suivent à distance

➡️#Buttigieg est le seul autre candidat à se démarquer, les autres faisant (pour l’instant ?) de la figuration
🇺🇸🗳️ Mais les sondages nationaux ont peu d’importance à ce stade : si un candidat crée la surprise lors d’une des premières primaires, il peut impulser une dynamique à sa campagne (le « momentum ») qui l’avantagera lors des scrutins suivants.
Read 41 tweets
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Political Polls
@Politics_Polls
National @Reuters/@Ipsos Poll

Who is the best candidate on..

Healthcare:
Sanders 25
Biden 15
Warren 13
Buttigieg 7
Harris 5
Booker 2

Environment:
Sanders 19
Biden 13
Warren 12
Buttigieg 8
Harris 6
Booker 5

Strong progressive:
Sanders 22
Warren 17
Biden 14
Booker 5
Buttigieg 4
@Reuters @Ipsos Economy/Jobs:
Biden 22
Sanders 18
Warren 11
Buttigieg 7
Harris 6
Booker 2

Immigration:
Biden 17
Sanders 16
Warren 11
Harris 8
Buttigieg 5
Booker 2
@Reuters @Ipsos Can unify the Democratic Party:
Biden 23
Sanders 14
Warren 10
Buttigieg 9
Harris 5
Booker 3

Most likely to beat Trump in the GE:
Biden 30
Sanders 15
Warren 11
Buttigieg 4
Booker 4
Harris 3
Read 4 tweets
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Matt Rogers 🎙
@Politidope
@Civiqs Here is Trump's approval rating after weeks of racist attacks converted into Electoral College format, per @Civiqs daily tracking poll & a new University of Texas poll showing Trump losing TX to Warren, Harris, Sanders & O'Rourke. [projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20190730…] civiqs.com/results/approv…
@Civiqs Here is Donald Trump's current approval rating in all 50 states converted into Electoral College format, per @Civiqs daily tracking poll.

🚨 Trump is now underwater in Florida, Georgia, Texas, Iowa & Utah 🚨 civiqs.com/results/approv…
@Civiqs OH MY! 👀

Here is Donald Trump's current approval rating in all 50 states converted into Electoral College format, per @Civiqs' daily tracking poll. civiqs.com/results/approv…
Read 3 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth 🏳️‍🌈
@VABVOX
HUGE.
#Biden & #Bernie continue to plummet. I wrote last month that #Buttigieg was the natural inheritor of voters divesting of Biden. #Warren is the natural inheritor of the left vote. #Harris, still the most charismatic candidate, has now tripled her Iowa standing since June.
This is the Democratic field. The debates both winnowed the field and reshuffled the deck. Despite massive help from MSM that included two full hours on Chris Cuomo in prime time, much spent attacking Harris and progressives, Biden fails to move his campaign forward.
Sanders has released a couple of videos vomosring himself to FDR, who was president when Sanders was born in 1941. Both Biden and Bernie focusing on the past while Harris and Warren roll out forward-thinking policy almost daily.

This is why the polls are shaking out as they are.
Read 4 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
THREAD
Response to #Biden skipping the California Dems is scathing.

Biden's "refusal to show up only reinforces the idea that he’s an elitist and he is more interested in collecting big checks in CA than being in genuine touch with grassroots activists."
usatoday.com/story/news/pol…
#Buttigieg and #Warren took Biden on.
Buttigieg said that "the riskiest thing we could do is try to play it safe.... In these times, Democrats can no more promise to take us back to the 2000s or 1990s than conservatives can take us back to the 1950s.”

usatoday.com/story/news/pol… …
#Warren: “Some Democrats in Washington believe the only changes we can get are tweaks & nudges.If they dream at all, they dream small.Some say if we’d all just calm down, Republicans will come to their senses. Our country is in a time of crisis. The time for small ideas is over.”
Read 9 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #EqualityActNow
@VABVOX
So we seem to have stopped discussing electability when #Bernie started slipping below #Warren and #Harris's favorables topped #Biden's.
Huh.
Maybe women ARE the ticket for 2020.
#Campaign2020
A month from now when the main debate stage is Biden, Bernie, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, Beto, Klobuchar, Booker, Inslee, Castro and maybe Yang & Williamson, there will be more shifts in the polls.
One issue that will be raised is age.
No one will need to say it--we'll see it.
Read 5 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Sanders #PartyOfLincoln #Harris #Kentucky #WestVirginia #DishonestAbe #TrumpRallyMonroe #Indiana #GOP #SouthDakota #TrumpBribed #Warren #Campaign2020 #NutShellReport #Patience #Trump #Mississippi #ThePatriotTimes #PeopleOfColor #2018Elections #Resist #Buttigieg #MASSACHUSETTS #LiarInChief #Tennessee
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