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As a historical institutionalist it pains me to say this, but the pattern of labor union support or opposition to USMCA/NAFTA comports pretty well with an open economy politics framework.

Here's @thoatley with an exposition and critique of OEP:
cambridge.org/core/journals/…
@thoatley And here's another insightful piece from @whinecough
oxfordre.com/politics/view/…
@thoatley @whinecough So where are the different unions at? Just today, the Teamsters came out as for. Here's how they explain their support.
prnewswire.com/news-releases/… Image
@thoatley @whinecough Last week, the Steelworkers announced their support. While they don't cite it in their statement, there are many benefits for steel in the new NAFTA.
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
prnewswire.com/news-releases/… Image
@thoatley @whinecough To date, the Machinists are the union that is most strongly against. They describe their concerns as relating to the aerospace sector.
goiam.org/news/imail/mac… Image
@thoatley @whinecough The CWA calls it "not a future template" and has strong criticism, though tempered with some praise for things that were changed. One of their stated concerns: call center labor law enforcement.
cwa-union.org/news/releases/… Image
@thoatley @whinecough UAW is likewise critical, though tempered with praise: "we already know that USMCA Is highly unlikely to bring factories back from Mexico, as some have promised." Hard to say what net auto impact will be.
nytimes.com/2019/12/11/bus…
fool.com/investing/2019…
uaw.org/statement-uaw-…
@thoatley @whinecough The UFCW is also critical, citing the failure to fix country of origin labeling that would benefit domestic meatpackers.
marketscreener.com/news/UFCW-Unit… Image
@thoatley @whinecough Similar grievances were cited by the National Family Farm Coalition in its criticism of the deal.
newsweek.com/usmca-trump-fa…
@thoatley @whinecough And unlike the debate over the TPP (which is better explained using non-OEP frameworks), service sector unions that are neither import-competing nor export-oriented are largely sitting the USMCA debate out.
nytimes.com/2015/06/14/bus…
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More from @toddntucker see all

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Todd N. Tucker
@toddntucker
Over the weekend, Warren came out in favor of the new NAFTA/USMCA. This is going to make the next few weeks very interesting. Thread...
cnn.com/2020/01/03/pol…
Warren has long made removal of investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) her signature "trade" issue. The argument: when investors can sue governments over regulation, you get less of it and you offshore jobs. Her solution: take it out of trade deals.
washingtonpost.com/opinions/kill-…
Here's Warren after Trump renegotiated NAFTA in 2018: “Trump’s deal won’t stop the serious and ongoing harm NAFTA causes for American workers. It won’t stop outsourcing, it won’t raise wages, and it won’t create jobs. It’s NAFTA 2.0.”
cnbc.com/2018/11/29/sen…
Read 23 tweets
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Todd N. Tucker
@toddntucker
I'm gradually making my way through the second take on the second take on NAFTA. I'll post some thoughts on this thread as I go through it.
ustr.gov/trade-agreemen…
The first change is to add in reference to the 7 multilateral environmental agreements that became part of the standard US template under Bush and Obama. Trump had initially listed just 1, while enviros had called to go beyond the 7.
sierraclub.org/sites/www.sier…
The second change is the tighter definition of how much North American content steel products have to have to get duty-free benefits. Another win for one of Trump's favored industries.
reuters.com/article/us-usa…
Read 21 tweets
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Todd N. Tucker
@toddntucker
So a day I predicted would never come is here, and it looks like House Democrats are going to vote next week to pass Trump's NAFTA 2. Thread...
At least one thing I predicted was true, which is that - if top Dems could get aligned with Trump - the technicalities of the Fast Track timeline wouldn't matter much.
And also when I said that if this happened it would disprove prominent social science theories of the policy process. Here the trade silo overcame having bad problem definition, weak solutions, and unfavorable politics.
Read 11 tweets

Related threads

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MissMAGA2016
@MissMaga2016
Another crooked #Union boss was arrested.

Glenn Blicht, President of the Longshoremen Union Local 1964, was arrested for demanding and taking bribes from an employer in exchange for NOT representing Union employee's interests.

#ButNothingsHappening #UnionCorruption
LOL...and once again, THERE ARE TAPES!
Just as a reminder, and to put them in one place, there have been quite a few busts related to corrupt union bosses and officials. Here's the former VP of the UAW who pleaded guilty to corruption:

Read 28 tweets
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Henry Farrell
@henryfarrell
1. nationalinterest.org/feature/americ… My and @ANewman_forward National Interest piece on America and financial infrastructure has just come out. In ways, it's a companion to great @dandrezner piece on US grand strategy foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-…, which mentions stupidity of US on SWIFT.
2. But in other ways it's different. It's an argument about structure in international relations - but not the usual kinds of structures. Instead of big power relations, we focus on how the plumbing is going wrong - and how that may be more important than any number of NATO spats
3. Our argument is a version of the military dictum that "Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics." International political economy scholars think a lot about money and trade - but they tend to focus on high policy decisions
Read 17 tweets
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Jo Maugham QC
@JolyonMaugham
We need to talk about Tony Blair, Peter Mandelson and People’s Vote. THREAD.
People’s Vote was previously known as Open Britain, and before that Stronger In, and was the lead campaigner for Remain in the 2016 Referendum. Which, it won’t have escaped your attention, lost, despite the considerable advantages Remain enjoyed. /1
It has been described by another one of the Remain campaigns as a project to "allow the political undead to rise and walk amongst the living again.” What that individual meant was that it is a vanity project for the personal aggrandisement of Blair and Mandelson.

I agree. /2
Read 11 tweets
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Dan Greenup✝️🇺🇸
@DanGreenup
Jared Kushner is being given the Mexican Order of the Aztec Eagle for helping to secure the #USMCA and replace #NAFTA 🇺🇸🇲🇽👍
lagranepoca.com/news/398731-me…
Here's a link to the press release in English:
gob.mx/sre/prensa/sen…
Speaking of Jared Kushner, Eduardo Bolsonaro, son of President @jairbolsonaro, recently met with Kushner and confirmed that Brazil will move its Israeli embassy to Jerusalem 👍🇺🇸🇧🇷🇮🇱
guiame.com.br/gospel/noticia…
Read 3 tweets
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Taiwo_Ajakaye
@dmightyangel
Abang Mercy asked question on why @fkeyamo known to stand for Nigerians is standing with Buhari.....
"Posterity will reckon me on the right side of history".....@fkeyamo 2019
When #FestusKeyamoSpeaks, you've got to learn👏👏👏👏
On human right records, #FestusKeyamoSpeaks clearly...
"We must be careful of all these blank statement: When we say these things, you will think that there are political prisoners in Nigeria"....
The Ecowas court had asked Dasuki to be released, is that not enough to question the human right record of
this administration?

#FestusKeyamoSpeaks clearly that Dasuki's right was NEVER violated...

Me: When Dasuki was involved in HUMAN WRONG, you were all MUTE..
Human right?
Read 24 tweets
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Farm Policy
@FarmPolicy
1/ “What to Expect from #USMCA (or #NAFTA 1.01),” by Yujun Zhou, Kathy Baylis, Jonathan Coppess, and Qianting Xie goo.gl/P3x9du
2/ There are significant updates to #NAFTA in the automobile and #dairy industry, but other changes are relatively minor goo.gl/P3x9du
3/ There is also little evidence that it will significantly alter trade balances among the three countries goo.gl/P3x9du
Read 4 tweets

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