1) A quick look at how things have turned out for the BJP in the 4th and 5th phases of the Jharkhand poll, where a) Bengalis are in significant number b) they went to the polls after CAB.
In the 4th and 5th phases, the BJP won/leads 13 of the 31 seats that went to the polls.
In the 4th and 5th phases, the BJP won/leads 13 of the 31 seats that went to the polls.
2) Bengali speakers [Hindu+Muslim] form ~10% of the total population of Jharkhand, but are disproportionately concentrated in the eastern districts such as Sahebganj, Pakur, Dhanbad, Bokaro, Purbi Singhbhum, Jamtara, Seraikeila-Kharsawan. The others have little Bengali presence.
3) Out of these districts, Sahebganj, Pakur, Dhanbad, Bokaro, and Jamtara voted in the 4th and 5th phases, while Purbi Singhbhum, and Seraikeila-Kharsawan voted in the first three phases. The difference in results is exceptionally startling.
4) In the 6 seats of Purbi Singhbhum, and 3 seats of Seraikeila-Kharsawan, which all voted in the first 3 phases, and most seats have very significant Bengali presence, BJP is trailing or has already lost. It is a washout for the BJP in this Bengali heavy region.
5) BJP lost or is trailing in its strongholds like the two seats in Jamshedpur [which are extremely Bengali heavy]. Indeed, Raghubar Das is trailing behind a Bengali independent, Sarju Roy. This old BJP stronghold has been completely dented.
6) However, the turnaround in the fourth and fifth phases is equally startling. In Bokaro district, Bokaro and Chandankiyari are extremely Bengali heavy and BJP is leading in both. [The other three seats in Bokaro don't have many Bengalis]. These two seats voted in 4th phase.
7) In Dhanbad, which has a very strong Hindu Bengali presence, BJP is leading in [or has won] four of the 6 seats. To sum up, BJP won or is leading in 9 of the 15 seats in Phase 4, and 9 of the 11 seats where Bengalis are heavy.
8) In the 5th phase, which is Muslim and tribal heavy [there are 20-25% Muslims, and ~30-35% tribals with some seats being Muslim majority], but also has a significant Bengali vote [15-20%], BJP did not do all that well, winning/leading in only 4 of the 16 seats.
9) Examining the seats further, we get the following statistics. Of the 3 seats in Sahebganj, 2 are ST seats and BJP lost both. It won only the remaining seat [Rajamahal], which is a Hindu stronghold [Bengali+Hindi]. In fact, here, Hindus have consolidated behind BJP.
10) Pakur is another district overrun by Muslims [Bengali+Hindi]. It is only 55% Hindu, and in fact, Pakaur seat is Hindu minority. So, despite it having a very significant Hindu Bengali vote, BJP did not win in Pakaur. In the other two, the tribal+Muslim combo won for JMM.
11) Dumka is along similar lines, where the tribal+Muslim vote has won it for the JMM+Cong. In Jamtara, BJP should have won Nala seat [~30-40% Hindu Bengalis], but was trailing by a narrow margin. Nor sure what happened here. In Jamtara seat, tribal+Muslim combo worked.
12) What is the final take away message? Even in the very short time after the CAA, BJP did much much better, and in fact, swept the Hindu Bengali areas in the fourth phase. Only in the fifth phase, where the tribal+Muslim combination worked for the JMM was BJP stopped.
5a) Correction: Sarjy Roy is not a Bengali, but a Bhumihar from Buxar, apparently.
