Going to write down a few predictions for ten years from now.
Here’s one: contra jefftk.com/p/programmers-… and other people I respect, I think total compensation for software engineers on a real (inflation-adjusted) basis will be materially higher in 2030 than in 2020.
Here’s one: contra jefftk.com/p/programmers-… and other people I respect, I think total compensation for software engineers on a real (inflation-adjusted) basis will be materially higher in 2030 than in 2020.
“Define ‘materially higher’”
I want to be at at least the 95th percentile of the distribution of smart people with respect to this guess.
Will come up with an appropriate reference class and a target number prior to publishing “formally.”
I want to be at at least the 95th percentile of the distribution of smart people with respect to this guess.
Will come up with an appropriate reference class and a target number prior to publishing “formally.”
The biggest risk to my prediction is probably the extent to which you believe global macroeconomic policy causes all asset prices, including Google RSUs, to appreciate more than justified by future returns over any 4 year period, and that therefore engineer comp is political.
